Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Lealtad		Sarriana

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.3	3.05	3.08	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.4
	2.11	3.43	3.48
	2	3.1	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.22)	3.1 ↑ (3.06)	3.36 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lealtad
42.9%

Draw
29.7%

Sarriana
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

29.7%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

31%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lealtad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Sarriana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lealtad than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarriana than the current prediction. (+1%)

Lealtad - Sarriana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lealtad (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Sarriana (2.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lealtad (votes: 1 - 50%). Sarriana (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
60', 1 - 1, Pena W. ⚽,
66', 2 - 1, ⚽,
74', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Recent form of Lealtad has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sarriana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lealtad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lealtad
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
04.01.26	Gimnástica Segoviana - Lealtad	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Lealtad - Salamanca	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lealtad - Bergantiños	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Real Oviedo B - Lealtad	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Lealtad - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LLLWL
- SD Sarriana
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
04.01.26	Sarriana - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Sarriana - Atlético Astorga	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Langreo - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Sarriana - Deportivo A Coruña B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.09.25	Sarriana - Lealtad	2:0

Lealtad - Sarriana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide