Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 13

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Lealtad		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	2.68	2.92	2.52
	3.13	2.99	2.44
	2.80	3.02	2.51	Watch
	2.8	2.89	2.52
	3.14	2.75	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.8)	2.91 ↓ (3.02)	2.49 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lealtad
31.6%

Draw
31.5%

UD Ourense
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

30.5%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

30.1%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lealtad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lealtad than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Lealtad - UD Ourense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, de Prado S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Lealtad is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

UD Ourense is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lealtad
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
23.11.25	Langreo - Lealtad	4:0 ✺
16.11.25	Lealtad - Rayo Cantabria	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Coruxo - Lealtad	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Lealtad - Atlético Astorga	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Burgos Promesas - Lealtad	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLT
- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
23.11.25	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Real Oviedo B - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Astorga - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	UD Ourense - Deportivo A Coruña B	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	UD Ourense - Pontevedra	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WWTWL

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