The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Leamington 22.8%
Draw 25.2%
Merthyr Town 52%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
23%
22.6%
54.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.2%
19.8%
47.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leamington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leamington than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
Leamington - Merthyr Town Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Twamley L. (Penalty Awarded),
19', 0 - 2, Ryan-Phillips C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
74', 1 - 2, Glennon W. ⚽,
90+7', Garrick J. 🟥,
90+11', 🟥,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
Leamington is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Merthyr's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Leamington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Merthyr is the team to beat.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leamington won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Leamington won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).
Outrights of English National League North for now
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