Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lecce		Bologna

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.20	2.10
	3.75	3.10	2.10
	3.90	3.20	1.98	Watch
	3.91	3.19	2.22
	4	3.23	2.05	Watch
	3.85	3.15	2.15
	3.80	3.24	2.13
	3.80	3.30	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↓ (4.15)	3.2 ↓ (3.42)	2.11 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
24.8%

Draw
29.8%

Bologna
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

27.8%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

27.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Bologna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	18.2%	72.7%

Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). Bologna will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 54.1% – 91.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ilic I. 14. Maleh Y. 50. Pierotti S. 22. Esteban P. 7. Fatah A.	25. Pessina M. (G) 36. Darmian M. 16. Casale N. 14. Heggem T. 20. Zortea N. 19. Ferguson L. 4. Pobega T. 33. Miranda J. 7. Orsolini R. (C) 28. Cambiaghi N. 91. Piccoli R.
Substitutes
1. Bleve M. (G) 32. Borbei A. (G) 2. Dembele A. 8. Fofana S. 16. Gandelman O. 4. Gaspar K. 69. Geubbels W. 28. Gorter O. 18. Jean G. 77. Kaba M. 99. Monteiro J. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 79. Ngom O.	23. Alhassane R. 8. Amondarain M. 10. Bernardeschi F. 29. De Silvestri L. 9. Dovbyk A. 17. El Azzouzi O. 22. Enem J. 5. Fauske Helland E. 72. Happonen U. (G) 18. Libra M. 6. Moro N. 1. Skorupski L. (G) 41. Vitik M.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Palladino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Ilic I. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Orsolini R. ⚽, Cambiaghi N. (A),
31', Esteban P. 🟨,
36', Ilic I. ↓, Ngom O. ↑,
44', Heggem T. 🟨,
45+2', Maleh Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Heggem T. ↓, Fauske Helland E. ↑,
62', Piccoli R. ↓, Enem J. ↑,
62', Pobega T. ↓, El Azzouzi O. ↑,
62', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
62', Esteban P. ↓, Geubbels W. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Fatah A. ⚽, Veiga D. (A),
75', 1 - 2, Enem J. ⚽, Cambiaghi N. (A),
79', Fatah A. ↓, Monteiro J. ↑,
79', Maleh Y. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
81', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Bernardeschi F. ↑,
81', Miranda J. ↓, Alhassane R. ↑,
90+4', El Azzouzi O. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 12th and 19th in the Relegation - Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 0.

In recent outings, Lecce has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bologna is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

In this matchup, Bologna is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Lecce: Berisha M. (Lacking Match Fitness) Stulic N. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Bologna: Holm E. (Thigh Injury) Odgaard J. (Thigh Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Bologna: Dovbyk A. (Muscle Injury) Mbangula S. (Injury).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Lecce has recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:21 (averaging 0.8:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lecce against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 7:9 goals (averaging 1.2:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Bologna: 0.27% Lecce: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	6:12	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	5:7	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Bologna - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 49.23%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
20.09.26	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Lecce - Monza	3:2 ✺
07.09.26	Cagliari - Lecce	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
23.08.26	Venezia - Lecce	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLLW
- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
19.09.26	Bologna - Torino	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Napoli - Bologna	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Bologna - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Bologna - Lazio	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2
09.02.25	Lecce - Bologna	0:0
02.11.24	Bologna - Lecce	1:0
11.02.24	Bologna - Lecce	4:0
03.12.23	Lecce - Bologna	1:1
04.06.23	Lecce - Bologna	2:3

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