Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Crezzini V. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lecce		Monza

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.63
	2.80	2.95	2.75
	2.9	3.15	2.52	Watch
	2.99	3.07	2.78
	2.81	3.05	2.75	Watch
	2.95	3	2.65
	2.9	3.13	2.65
	2.9	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.29)	3.07 ↓ (3.21)	2.69 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
33.1%

Draw
31.2%

Monza
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.7%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

29.4%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lecce's form might have worsened.

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Monza's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lecce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	33.3%	26.7%

Lecce - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Monza will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lecce: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lecce (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 14. Maleh Y. 20. Ilic I. 11. Ndri K. 9. Stulic N. 99. Monteiro J.	20. Thiam D. (G) 60. Kouadio E. 3. Lucchesi L. 44. Carboni A. 19. Birindelli S. (C) 90. Folorunsho M. 14. Akinsanmiro E. 7. Mangas R. 28. Colpani A. 46. Robinson J. 9. Varela G.
Substitutes
1. Bleve M. (G) 32. Borbei A. (G) 2. Dembele A. 22. Esteban P. 7. Fatah A. 8. Fofana S. 4. Gaspar K. 28. Gorter O. 18. Jean G. 77. Kaba M. 3. Ndaba C. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 31. Scott E.	6. Antov V. 24. Bakoune A. 21. Colombo L. 10. Cutrone P. 11. Forson O. 2. Goglichidze S. 5. Maye Y. 47. Mota D. 80. Mout M. 8. Ondoa F. 43. Strajnar A. (G) 1. Tornqvist N. (G) 22. Zeballos E.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Juric I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Coulibaly L. ⚽, Ilic I. (A),
10', 2 - 0, Tiago Gabriel ⚽, Ilic I. (A),
20', 2 - 1, Mangas R. ⚽, Birindelli S. (A),
21', 3 - 1, Coulibaly L. ⚽, Veiga D. (A),
38', Ndri K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mangas R. ↓, Bakoune A. ↑,
46', Ndri K. ↓, Pierotti S. ↑,
64', Robinson J. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
64', Colpani A. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
66', Ilic I. ↓, Ngom O. ↑,
74', Monteiro J. ↓, Fatah A. ↑,
74', Stulic N. ↓, Esteban P. ↑,
75', Varela G. ↓, Forson O. ↑,
84', Akinsanmiro E. ↓, Mout M. ↑,
85', Maleh Y. ↓, Kaba M. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Zeballos E. ⚽,
90', Veiga D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2.

Lecce is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monza has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Rest) Geubbels W. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Pessina M. (Knee Injury) Toure I. (Contusion) Ziolkowski J. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Ciurria P. (Inactive) Ngonge C. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Lecce: 0.14% Monza: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8:12	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
07.09.26	Cagliari - Lecce	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Lecce - Roma	0:4 ✺
23.08.26	Venezia - Lecce	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Palermo - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Lecce - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWLT
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
06.09.26	Parma - Monza	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
01.09.26	Torino - Monza	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
29.08.26	Monza - Udinese	2:3 ✺
22.08.26	Inter Milan - Monza	4:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
14.08.26	Monza - Avellino	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
16.02.25	Monza - Lecce	0:0
15.12.24	Lecce - Monza	2:1
27.04.24	Lecce - Monza	1:1
17.09.23	Monza - Lecce	1:1
28.05.23	Monza - Lecce	0:1
11.09.22	Lecce - Monza	1:1
Italian Serie B
27.02.22	Monza - Lecce	0:1

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