Match Info

Serie A - Round 2

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN, Laola1
Bolivia	ESPN 3
Brazil	Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
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Ecuador	ESPN 3
Finland	DAZN, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	Match 4
Italy	DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 2
Malta	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Lecce		Roma

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.33	1.44
	7.00	4.20	1.49
	7.3	4.15	1.46	Watch
	8	4.55	1.48
	7.99	4.41	1.47	Watch
	7.9	4.4	1.46
	7.69	4.44	1.48
	7.2	4.7	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.57 ↑ (5.35)	4.4 ↑ (3.53)	1.47 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
12.7%

Draw
21.9%

Roma
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

26.9%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

25.6%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lecce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2%	11.8%	86.3%

Lecce - Roma Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - under (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Roma (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Roma will win (44 of 51 users predict this - 86.27%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.82% – 95.72%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roma will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 44. Tiago Gabriel 5. Siebert J. 4. Gaspar K. 17. Veiga D. 29. Coulibaly L. 79. Ngom O. 28. Gorter O. 3. Ndaba C. 50. Pierotti S. 69. Geubbels W.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 87. Ghilardi D. 22. Hermoso M. 77. Lulli E. 4. Cristante B. (C) 17. Kone M. 43. Wesley Franca 18. Soule M. 21. Dybala P. 14. Malen D.
Substitutes
10. Berisha M. 1. Bleve M. (G) 2. Dembele A. 22. Esteban P. 7. Fatah A. 8. Fofana S. 25. Gallo A. 16. Gandelman O. 20. Ilic I. 34. Laerke H. 14. Maleh Y. 11. Ndri K. 33. Penev P. (G) 31. Scott E. 9. Stulic N.	26. Balerdi L. 9. Castro S. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 15. De Roon M. 95. Gollini P. (G) 3. Koulierakis K. 20. Molina N. 86. Mora R. 5. Ndicka E. 61. Pisilli N.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, Malen D. ⚽,
9', Malen D. 🟨,
23', 0 - 2, Malen D. ⚽, Wesley Franca (A),
25', 0 - 3, Soule M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tiago Gabriel ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
46', Gorter O. ↓, Maleh Y. ↑,
54', Geubbels W. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
60', Wesley Franca ↓, Molina N. ↑,
60', Soule M. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
65', 0 - 4, Mora R. ⚽, Mancini G. (A),
67', Kone M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
67', Malen D. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
72', Pierotti S. ↓, Fatah A. ↑,
72', Ngom O. ↓, Ilic I. ↑,
84', Dybala P. ↓, De Roon M. ↑,
90', Ilic I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Roma has had a series of away games.

In this match, Roma is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Roma: Bah M. (Knee Injury) Balerdi L. (Calf Injury) Pellegrini Lo. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Banda L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Roma: Rensch D. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 9:23. (average 0.8:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.31% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6

Last Results with these Odds

Roma - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 55.37%, but this team recently wins 77% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
23.08.26	Venezia - Lecce	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Palermo - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.26	Lecce - Istra 1961	2:2 ✺
22.07.26	Lecce - Politehnica Timișoara	0:1 ✺
19.07.26	Szombathelyi Haladas - Lecce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLTLW
- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
24.08.26	Roma - Fiorentina	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Dortmund - Roma	2:2 ✺
08.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Roma	3:0 ✺
04.08.26	Newport County - Roma	1:4 ✺
01.08.26	Cardiff City - Roma	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
22.03.26	Roma - Lecce	1:0
06.01.26	Lecce - Roma	0:2
29.03.25	Lecce - Roma	0:1
07.12.24	Roma - Lecce	4:1
01.04.24	Lecce - Roma	0:0
05.11.23	Roma - Lecce	2:1
11.02.23	Lecce - Roma	1:1

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