Match Info

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday


	Lech Poznań		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	4.50	4.10	1.62
	4.60	4.10	1.72
	4.47	4.39	1.66
	4.48	4.33	1.67	Watch
	4.50	4.30	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (4.48)	4.24 ↓ (4.33)	1.66 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
21%

Draw
22.3%

Bayer Leverkusen
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

21.9%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.7%

21.4%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Lech Poznań - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Lech has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bayer is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bayer could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Bayer for this game.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 8.68% Lech Poznan: 0.37%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	2:0	2	3
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Lech Poznań - Energie Cottbus	2:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Crystal Palace - Lech Poznań	4:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.09.26	Górnik Zabrze - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWTWL

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