Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Bolivia	12:45	ESPN 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 2
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	ESPN 3
Colombia	11:45	ESPN 3
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	18:45	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Ecuador	11:45	ESPN 3
Estonia	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 6
Germany	18:45	RTL+, Sky Sport 1
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	16:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Calcio
Laos	23:45	beIN Connect
Lithuania	19:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	10:45	Claro Sports
New Zealand	05:45	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Paraguay	13:45	ESPN 3
Peru	11:45	Disney+, ESPN 3
Philippines	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	17:45	DAZN / App
Russia	19:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	00:45	beIN Sports 2
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, M+ Liga de Campeones 7, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 19, Blue Sport 19
Thailand	23:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	19:45	Tabii Spor 2, Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United Kingdom	17:45	HBO Max, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+, ESPN 3, Inter


	Lech Poznań		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	6.00	5.00	1.48
	5.75	5.00	1.46
	6.50	5.00	1.46
	6.58	5.06	1.46
	5	4.71	1.61	Watch
	6.50	4.95	1.43
	7.50	5.02	1.43
	5.80	5.20	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.2 ↑ (4.48)	4.99 ↑ (4.33)	1.48 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
15.5%

Draw
19.3%

Bayer Leverkusen
65.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.2%

21.9%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.5%

21.2%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lech Poznań's form might have worsened.

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayer Leverkusen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lech Poznań - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.56) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

EH +3 - Lech (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - Bayer Leverkusen & Yes (2.50) (votes: 83%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (21 of 21 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 25%). Bayer (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lis M. (G) 2. Pereira J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 5. Berggren G. 43. Kozubal A. 10. Walemark P. 9. Ishak M. (C) 14. Bengtsson L. 77. Palma L.	1. Flekken M. (G) 17. Lucas 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. (C) 3. Gutierrez M. 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 23. Tella N. 10. Tillman M. 30. Maza I. 11. Terrier M.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 55. Bartczak P. 53. Delikat K. 11. Hakans D. 24. Jagiello F. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 21. Rodriguez P. 56. Szymczak W. 59. Yegbe T.	8. Andrich R. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 19. Diaby M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 2. Medina F. 9. Moreira A. 4. Quansah J. 14. Schick P.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
15', Monka W. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
18', Terrier M. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Schick P. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 0 - 2, Tillman M. ⚽,
40', Skrzypczak M. 🟨,
41', 0 - 3, Schick P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
60', Bengtsson L. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
60', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
62', Tella N. ↓, Diaby M. ↑,
62', Garcia A. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
62', Gutierrez M. ↓, Medina F. ↑,
68', Andrich R. 🟨,
74', Berggren G. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
76', Schick P. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
80', Diaby M. 🟨,
89', 0 - 4, Maza I. ⚽, Moreira A. (A),

Preview

Lech has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bayer is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Lech may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bayer carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Lech: Douglas A. (Ankle Injury) Gholizadeh A. (Knee Injury) Moutinho J. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Red Card) Sayyadmanesh A. (Groin Injury).

Confirmed absences for Bayer: Boniface V. (Off the roster) Culbreath M. (Foot Injury) Doue G. (Calf Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Hofmann J. (Off the roster) Kofane C. (Muscle Injury) Oermann T. (Off the roster).

Doubtful / questionable for Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Muscle Injury).

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayer Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	8:0	8	9
32	Lech Poznan	3	0	1	2	1:9	-8	1

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 11.69% Lech Poznan: 0.21%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.10.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Lech Poznań	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Lech Poznań - Energie Cottbus	2:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.26	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Crystal Palace - Lech Poznań	4:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.09.26	Górnik Zabrze - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTWLL
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
10.10.26	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
20.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTW

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