What is the expert prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 02, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	Canal GOAT, Xsports
Bulgaria	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United-kingdom	Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Mix, Sky Sports Mix
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.2	2.88	Watch
	2.1	4	3
	2.18	3.95	2.98	Watch
	2.2	4.15	3.02
	2.18	4.23	2.98	Watch
	2.1	3.9	2.88
	2.2	4.21	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.01)	4.09 ↓ (4.14)	2.98 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
44.5%

Draw
23.4%

RB Leipzig
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

23%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

24.1%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bayer Leverkusen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	13.3%	46.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 42.9%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 12 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 24.6% – 61.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 24. Garcia A. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 23. Tella N. 14. Schick P.	26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 14. Baumgartner C. 13. Seiwald N. 24. Schlager X. (C) 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 5. Bade L. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 19. Poku E. 10. Tillman M.	9. Bakayoko J. 10. Gruda B. 1. Gulacsi P. (G) 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 23. Lukeba C. 20. Ouedraogo A. 22. Raum D.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
14', Finkgrafe M. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Schick P. ⚽, Tella N. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Tella N. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Nusa A. ↓, Gruda B. ↑,
46', Bitshiabu E. ↓, Lukeba C. ↑,
65', Seiwald N. ↓, Ouedraogo A. ↑,
65', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
72', Schlager X. 🟨,
76', 3 - 0, Schick P. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
77', Tella N. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
77', Culbreath M. ↓, Arthur ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Baumgartner C. ⚽, Gruda B. (A),
84', Finkgrafe M. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
84', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
85', Garcia A. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
85', Maza I. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
86', Tillman M. 🟨,
89', 4 - 1, Schick P. ⚽, Grimaldo A. (A),
90+3', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

In recent matches, Bayer has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

RB Leipzig is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bayer might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bayer: Lucas (Injury) Terrier M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Banzuzi E. (Knee Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Hip Injury) Zingerle L. (Wrist Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Flekken M. (Muscle Injury) Kofane C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Lukeba C. (Muscle Injury) Raum D. (Groin Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:32. (average 1.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.7:1.9).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLWW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
20.03.26	RB Leipzig - Hoffenheim	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
25.01.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
31.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:3
20.01.24	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
19.08.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	3:2
23.04.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0
29.10.22	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0

Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide