Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	OneFootball TV


	Bayer Leverkusen		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.85	4.5	3.4	Watch
	1.85	4.33	3.50
	1.85	4.15	3.55	Watch
	1.89	4.55	3.74
	1.95	4.42	3.44	Watch
	1.85	4.3	3.7
	1.88	4.57	3.45	Watch
	1.84	4.6	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.92)	4.43 ↑ (4.15)	3.55 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
51.3%

Draw
21.7%

RB Leipzig
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

23%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

23%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	22.7%	22.7%

Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). RB Leipzig will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - under (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - Bayer Leverkusen & Yes (2.60) (votes: 78%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 12. Tapsoba E. (C) 2. Medina F. 3. Gutierrez M. 24. Garcia A. 6. Fernandez E. 19. Diaby M. 30. Maza I. 9. Moreira A. 14. Schick P.	26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 3. Esteve M. 22. Raum D. (C) 6. Banzuzi E. 21. El Aynaoui N. 10. Gruda B. 28. Nkunku C. 7. Nusa A. 40. Romulo Cardoso
Substitutes
8. Andrich R. 5. Bade L. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 22. Boniface V. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 17. Lucas 11. Terrier M. 10. Tillman M.	35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 45. Konate S. 2. Kone A. 30. Maksimovic A. 1. Nyland O. (G) 13. Seiwald N.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Demichelis M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Nusa A. 🟨,
26', Gruda B. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
44', 1 - 0, Schick P. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Gutierrez M. ⚽,
67', Banzuzi E. ↓, Seiwald N. ↑,
67', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Maksimovic A. ↑,
72', Fernandez E. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
74', El Aynaoui N. 🟨,
77', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
83', Tapsoba E. 🟨,
84', Nkunku C. ↓, Konate S. ↑,
84', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
89', Diaby M. ↓, Lucas ↑,
90+1', Henrichs B. 🟨,
90+1', Moreira A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

Bayer has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

RB Leipzig has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bayer holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Bayer: Culbreath M. (Injury) Doue G. (Muscle Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Tella N. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Thigh Injury) Guiu M. (Hamstring Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Shoulder Injury) Reitz R. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bayer has recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:33 (averaging 1.8:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bayer against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 19:18 goals (averaging 1.9:1.8 per game).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01% RB Leipzig: 2.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 49.66%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Celje	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.26	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTWLW
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
13.09.26	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Como - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
29.08.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Eintracht Trier - RB Leipzig	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	4:1
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
25.01.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2
31.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:3
20.01.24	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
19.08.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	3:2
23.04.23	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:0

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