Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 3

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: WWK Arena (Augsburg)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Augsburg		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.6	4	1.9	Watch
	3.30	4.10	1.93
	3.55	3.85	1.92	Watch
	3.84	4.2	1.95
	3.76	4.42	1.86	Watch
	3.8	3.95	1.9
	3.62	4.12	1.91	Watch
	3.65	4.2	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↓ (4.28)	4.11 ↓ (4.27)	1.91 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Augsburg
26.4%

Draw
23.4%

Bayer Leverkusen
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

22.3%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

23.4%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Augsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayer Leverkusen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Augsburg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayer Leverkusen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.4%	9.7%	71%

Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Augsburg will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Bayer will win (votes: 22 - 71%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 55% – 87%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Augsburg (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Bayer (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +0.5 - Augsburg (2.00) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dahmen F. (G) 40. Banks N. 5. Matsima C. 2. Brackelmann C. 27. Wolf M. 4. Massengo H. 32. Rieder F. (C) 16. Behrens H. 19. Fellhauer R. 21. Ibrahimovic A. 11. Gregoritsch M.	1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 12. Tapsoba E. (C) 2. Medina F. 3. Gutierrez M. 6. Fernandez E. 24. Garcia A. 19. Diaby M. 30. Maza I. 9. Moreira A. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
35. Bah J. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 6. Gouweleeuw J. 14. Keitel Y. 10. Komur M. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 39. Ogundu U. 9. Ribeiro R. 7. Seol Young-Woo	8. Andrich R. 5. Bade L. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 20. Doue G. 7. Hofmann J. 17. Lucas 14. Schick P. 11. Terrier M. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Baum M.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Tapsoba E. (A),
38', Banks N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Gregoritsch M. ⚽, Behrens H. (A),
55', 2 - 1, Gregoritsch M. ⚽, Rieder F. (A),
58', Ibrahimovic A. ↓, Claude-Maurice A. ↑,
60', Baum M. 🟨,
63', Kofane C. ↓, Schick P. ↑,
63', Quansah J. ↓, Doue G. ↑,
72', Doue G. 🟨,
76', Moreira A. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
76', Fernandez E. ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
77', Wolf M. ↓, Seol Young-Woo ↑,
77', Fellhauer R. ↓, Komur M. ↑,
85', Gregoritsch M. ↓, Ribeiro R. ↑,
85', Massengo H. ↓, Keitel Y. ↑,
85', Medina F. ↓, Lucas ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Schick P. ⚽, Tillman M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 2.

Augsburg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayer has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Augsburg: Breithaupt T. (Injury) Mounie S. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Culbreath M. (Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Tella N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Augsburg: Kade A. (Injury) Sakar F. (Ankle Injury) Suso S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Augsburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 15:36. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Augsburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.8:1.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21% Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
06.09.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Augsburg - Schalke 04	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Energie Cottbus - Augsburg	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Leeds United - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
08.08.26	Augsburg - Sassuolo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWWLW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
05.09.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Newcastle United - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
12.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	1:2
06.12.25	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0
26.04.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	2:0
14.12.24	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2
18.05.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	2:1
13.01.24	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
03.02.23	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0

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