Match Info

Division 1 - Round 5

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Lechia Gdańsk		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.25	3.20
	2.05	3.30	3.20
	2.16	3.25	2.88
	2.12	3.69	3.40
	2.39	3.58	2.73	Watch
	2.09	3.40	3.40
	2.04	3.44	3.14
	2.05	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.61)	3.4 ↑ (3.23)	3.13 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
43.5%

Draw
27.1%

Pogoń Siedlce
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

28.2%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

28.2%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.

Pogoń Siedlce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pogoń Siedlce might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pogoń Siedlce could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Weirauch S. (G) 19. Kopasek S. 40. Madej W. 21. Beskorovaynyi D. 3. Malov D. 11. Mena C. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 33. Wojtowicz T. 7. Dodaj K. 8. Adkonis J. 13. Shakh A.	57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 27. Barczak J. 4. Szur P. 26. Kendzia F. 2. Mis K. 31. Dzieciol E. 16. Poczobut B. 21. Kobusinski S. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 56. Demianiuk C. 9. Rosolek M.
Substitutes
17. Bambecki I. 31. Danielewski S. 9. Glogowski M. 16. Gutowski K. (G) 1. Holewinski A. (G) 77. Sinkiewicz D. 90. Sonko B. 27. Szczerbinski M. 23. Ziolkowski A.	14. Jakubik D. 6. Kizyma M. 22. Klimek P. 10. Makowski R. 17. Marzec M. 72. Szczytniewski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 29. Trepka L. 95. Zielonka N.
Coaches
Lupashko V.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Mis K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Demianiuk C. ↓, Marzec M. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Shakh A. ⚽,
58', Dzieciol E. ↓, Kizyma M. ↑,
58', Kobusinski S. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
64', Madej W. 🟨,
65', Adkonis J. 🟨,
68', Mis K. 🟨,
69', Adkonis J. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,
70', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Jakubik D. ↑,
77', Shakh A. ↓, Bambecki I. ↑,
86', Rosolek M. ↓, Klimek P. ↑,
86', Dodaj K. ↓, Sinkiewicz D. ↑,

Preview

Lechia is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pogoń Siedlce's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lechia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Including home match between the teams, Lechia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Lechia Gdansk: 11.59% Pogon Siedlce: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	17:15	2	13
10	Pogon Siedlce	8	3	3	2	9:7	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Siedlce - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.95%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Division 1
14.08.26	Ruch Chorzów - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
31.07.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Warta Poznań	0:3 ✺
25.07.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Olimpia Grudziądz	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTLLL
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
15.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
28.01.18	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Siedlce	4:1

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