Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 14

Date: 3 November 2025, Monday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Szczerbowicz M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.08	3.4	3.2
	2.08	3.62	3.33	Watch
	2.07	3.46	3.31	Watch
	2.06	3.45	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.29)	3.49 ↑ (3.21)	3.31 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
45%

Draw
26.8%

Radomiak Radom
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

27.8%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

28%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Radomiak Radom might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Radomiak Radom could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Radomiak will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Kludka B. 4. Pllana B. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 5. Zhelizko I. 99. Neugebauer T. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T.	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 14. Kingue S. 26. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. 10. Alves R. 2. Camara I. 7. Lopes V. 27. Wolski R. (C) 11. Capita 25. Maurides
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 15. Dyachuk M. 21. Glogowski M. 23. Kalahur M. 90. Kurminowski D. 3. Olsson E. 79. Sezonienko K. 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T.	21. Balde E. 6. Baro R. 5. Blasco J. 16. Cichocki M. 29. Depu 77. Donis C. 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 28. Kaput M. 44. Koptas W. (G) 37. Molendowski M. 15. Tapsoba A.
Coaches
Carver J.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Bobcek T. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Capita ⚽, Lopes V. (A),
41', Lopes V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Wolski R. ↓, Donis C. ↑,
58', Lopes V. ↓, Balde E. ↑,
66', Cirkovic A. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
66', Kapic R. ↓, Awad M. ↑,
69', Maurides ↓, Depu ↑,
69', Camara I. ↓, Kaput M. ↑,
72', Capita 🟨,
76', Donis C. 🟨,
80', Capita ↓, Tapsoba A. ↑,
81', Neugebauer T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
84', 0 - 2, Tapsoba A. ⚽, Alves R. (A),
90+3', 1 - 2, Viunnyk B. ⚽, Kurminowski D. (A),
90+6', Vojtko M. 🟨,
90+7', Zie Ouattara 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lechia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lechia has had a series of away games.

Lechia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lechia: Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Radomiak: Wilson-Esbrand J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Radomiak: Tapsoba A. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Radomiak Radom - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 33.28%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Piast Gliwice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWTL
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.10.25	Radomiak Radom - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Widzew Łódź - Radomiak Radom	3:2 ✺
04.10.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
29.09.25	Motor Lublin - Radomiak Radom	2:2 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.03.25	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
14.09.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:0
25.02.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:3
14.08.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	4:1
Club Friendly
30.06.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.02.22	Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0
28.08.21	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	2:2

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