Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 10

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1


	Motor Lublin		Radomiak Radom

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.22	3.45	2.92	Watch
	2.27	3.61	3.12
	2.24	3.24	3.24	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.3)	3.46 ↓ (3.46)	3.05 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
42%

Draw
27.2%

Radomiak Radom
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

27.1%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

26.5%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Radomiak Radom has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Radomiak Radom than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	41.2%	11.8%

Motor Lublin - Radomiak Radom Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Radomiak will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Motor: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Motor (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Radomiak (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 42. Ede B. 24. Luberecki F. 68. Wolski B. 21. Labojko J. 7. Rodrigues I. 26. Krol M. 9. Czubak K. 19. van Hoeven B.	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 24. Zie Ouattara 14. Kingue S. 17. Dieguez A. 13. Grzesik J. 2. Camara I. 27. Wolski R. 6. Baro R. 15. Tapsoba A. 25. Maurides 11. Capita
Substitutes
77. Dadashov R. 11. Fabio Ronaldo 10. Karasek K. 16. Lewandowski F. 2. Meyer P. 30. Ndiaye M. 47. Palacz K. 6. Samper S. 8. Scalet M. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 17. Wojcik F.	10. Alves R. 21. Balde E. 5. Blasco J. 16. Cichocki M. 29. Depu 99. Guilherme 75. Jerke M. (G) 20. Joao Pedro 28. Kaput M. 44. Koptas W. (G) 9. Leandro 7. Lopes V.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Henriques J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Tapsoba A. 🟨,
36', Dieguez A. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Zie Ouattara ⚽, Maurides (A),
43', Brkic I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', van Hoeven B. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Czubak K. ⚽,
59', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
60', Krol M. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
68', Ndiaye M. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
71', Baro R. ↓, Kaput M. ↑,
71', Camara I. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
77', Capita ↓, Balde E. ↑,
77', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Scalet M. ⚽,
85', Tapsoba A. ↓, Lopes V. ↑,
85', Wolski R. ↓, Depu ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Depu ⚽, Grzesik J. (A),
89', Zie Ouattara 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motor won 2.

Motor has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Radomiak is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Motor has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Motor won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Motor won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:0 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Motor Lublin	2:2 ✺
14.09.25	Motor Lublin - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTTWL
- Radomiak Radom
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Radomiak Radom - Piast Gliwice	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
29.08.25	GKS Katowice - Radomiak Radom	3:2 ✺
22.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Termalica Nieciecza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.05.25	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	2:3
02.12.24	Motor Lublin - Radomiak Radom	1:0
Club Friendly
12.07.24	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	1:1
02.02.24	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	2:1
27.01.21	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	3:3
23.02.18	Motor Lublin - Radomiak Radom	0:1
Polish Division 2 - East
26.04.14	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	4:2

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