Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 9

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday


	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki		Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.60	2.25
	2.52	3.55	2.22
	2.67	3.65	2.19
	2.49	3.66	2.39	Watch
	2.6	3.25	2.14
	2.61	3.44	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.4)	3.53 ↓ (3.55)	2.24 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
34.8%

Draw
25.3%

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

25.1%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

23.8%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Tyska J. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+5', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 11th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tomaszów Mazowiecki won 2.

In recent outings, Tomaszów Mazowiecki has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Świt has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Tomaszów Mazowiecki has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:25 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tomaszów Mazowiecki against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 13:13 goals (averaging 1.3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Swit Mazowiecki	11	6	2	3	20:12	8	20
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 37.86%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
11.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Troszyn	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź II	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	Mławianka Mława - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLTWW
- Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
12.09.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Weszło	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	Pelikan Łowicz - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Warta Sieradz	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Wigry Suwałki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.05.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	2:0
31.10.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1
15.03.25	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:2
21.08.24	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0
10.05.24	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:1
15.10.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	3:3
15.03.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:0

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