Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 13

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Leek Town		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.55	2.1
	2.86	3.69	2.16
	2.78	3.58	2.18
	4.25	3.9	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (4.61)	3.68 ↓ (3.75)	2.03 ↑ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leek Town
29.1%

Draw
25.2%

Lancaster City
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

24.1%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19%

23.4%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leek Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leek Town's performance.

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lancaster City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leek Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lancaster City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leek Town - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 0 - 1, Amison J. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North).

In recent matches, Leek has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lancaster is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lancaster may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lancaster could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leek won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Leek won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leek Town
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Halesowen Town - Leek Town	1:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:2 ✺
16.09.25	Leek Town - Hednesford Town	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Cleethorpes Town - Leek Town	3:0 ✺
09.09.25	Hyde United - Leek Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLLLW
- Lancaster City
English FA Trophy
07.10.25	Prescot Cables - Lancaster City	2:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
27.09.25	Lancaster City - Guiseley	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Ashton United - Lancaster City	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
09.09.25	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
18.01.25	Leek Town - Lancaster City	2:1
01.10.24	Lancaster City - Leek Town	0:1

Upcoming Matches