Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 23

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Broadhurst Park (Manchester)


	United of Manchester		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	2.92
	2.27	3.33	2.79
	2.32	3.54	2.81	Watch
	2.2	3	2.9
	2.14	3.54	3.13
	2	3.6	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.03)	3.35 ↓ (3.48)	2.96 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

United of Manchester
41.8%

Draw
27.3%

Lancaster City
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

26.7%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

25.7%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

United of Manchester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for United of Manchester than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for United of Manchester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

United of Manchester - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Grivosti M. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Sudworth A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
72', 2 - 1, Lawson D. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, United of Manchester won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lancaster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, United of Manchester has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, United of Manchester won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, United of Manchester won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.7:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

United of Manchester - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.71%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC United of Manchester
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Halifax Town - United of Manchester	4:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
10.12.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - United of Manchester	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Cleethorpes Town - United of Manchester	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	United of Manchester - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Hyde United - United of Manchester	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLWT
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
13.12.25	Warrington Rylands - Lancaster City	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Stocksbridge Park Steels - Lancaster City	1:4 ✺
25.11.25	Lancaster City - Prescot Cables	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Lancaster City - Stockton Town	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Cleethorpes Town - Lancaster City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
12.08.25	Lancaster City - United of Manchester	0:2
08.02.25	Lancaster City - United of Manchester	0:1
12.10.24	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	2:3
27.04.24	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	4:3
11.11.23	Lancaster City - United of Manchester	0:0
11.02.23	Lancaster City - United of Manchester	2:0
22.10.22	United of Manchester - Lancaster City	1:1

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