Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Ashton United		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.45	3.05
	2.09	3.59	3.05
	13.46	7.96	1.14	Watch
	2.08	3.34	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.91 ↑ (2.02)	4.59 ↑ (3.36)	2.6 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ashton United
25.2%

Draw
27%

Lancaster City
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lancaster City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+22.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-21.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lancaster City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ashton United - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Lawson D. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Joe Amison ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 3, Bailey S. (Pen),
60', 1 - 3, Navarro L. ⚽,
71', Horne B. D. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 3.

Ashton is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lancaster is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ashton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ashton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashton won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	Warrington Rylands - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Ashton United - Scarborough Athletic	2:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Ashton United - Bamber Bridge	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
03.09.25	Ashton United - Hallam	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Hallam - Ashton United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWTWT
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
09.09.25	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Rushall Olympic - Lancaster City	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Lancaster City - Workington	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Lancaster City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
15.02.25	Ashton United - Lancaster City	2:1
19.10.24	Lancaster City - Ashton United	2:2
05.03.24	Ashton United - Lancaster City	5:0
14.11.23	Lancaster City - Ashton United	2:1
English FA Cup
30.09.23	Lancaster City - Ashton United	0:2
English NPL Premier Division
15.04.23	Ashton United - Lancaster City	2:4
26.11.22	Lancaster City - Ashton United	1:0

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