Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 12

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Guiseley

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.4	2.92
	2.15	3.62	2.92
	2.07	3.34	3.16
	1.75	3.55	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.77)	3.48 ↓ (3.52)	3.21 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
45.3%

Draw
26.2%

Guiseley
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

25.6%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

23.7%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lancaster City's form might have worsened.

Guiseley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guiseley's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lancaster City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guiseley than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guiseley, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lancaster City - Guiseley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 3.

Lancaster is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Guiseley has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guiseley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lancaster will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lancaster won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Ashton United - Lancaster City	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
09.09.25	Lancaster City - Warrington Rylands	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Rushall Olympic - Lancaster City	2:3 ✺
25.08.25	Lancaster City - Workington	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 WWWWW
- Guiseley
English NPL Premier Division
20.09.25	Guiseley - Morpeth Town	3:1 ✺
16.09.25	Stockton Town - Guiseley	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	South Shields - Guiseley	2:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
09.09.25	Guiseley - Prescot Cables	3:1 ✺
06.09.25	Leek Town - Guiseley	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
01.02.25	Guiseley - Lancaster City	1:2
15.10.24	Lancaster City - Guiseley	1:1
30.03.24	Guiseley - Lancaster City	2:3
26.08.23	Lancaster City - Guiseley	2:2
22.04.23	Lancaster City - Guiseley	2:1
21.02.23	Guiseley - Lancaster City	0:0
English FA Trophy
11.12.18	Guiseley - Lancaster City	1:2

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