Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 22

Date: 6 January 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Monescillo D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4


	Leganés		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.2	5.5
	1.67	3.35	6
	1.71	3.25	5.4
	1.72	3.31	6.45
	1.7	3.25	5.8
	1.72	3.34	5.55	Watch
	1.73	3.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	3.3 ↓ (3.33)	5.73 ↑ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
55.2%

Draw
28.4%

Lugo
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

28.1%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

28.2%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.7%	8.7%	2.5%

Leganés - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: Leganés will win (71 of 80 users predict this - 88.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.83% – 95.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Leganés has the most likely position - 10 (7.06%), has project points - 59, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (22%), has a small chance of promoted (10%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 21 (16.79%), has project points - 44, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (58%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 35, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leganés won 1.

Leganés is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Lugo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lugo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Leganés is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Leganés won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Leganés won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
19.12.22	Leganés - Zaragoza	2:1 ✺
10.12.22	FC Andorra - Leganés	1:1 ✺
06.12.22	Leganés - Mirandés	2:2 ✺
03.12.22	Villarreal B - Leganés	0:0 ✺
27.11.22	Leganés - Granada	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTTTW
- CD Lugo
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
17.12.22	Lugo - Granada	1:0 ✺
11.12.22	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
04.12.22	Racing Santander - Lugo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
27.08.22	Lugo - Leganés	1:0
24.04.22	Lugo - Leganés	0:0
03.10.21	Leganés - Lugo	1:1
01.02.21	Leganés - Lugo	3:2
20.09.20	Lugo - Leganés	2:1
20.02.16	Lugo - Leganés	1:2
19.09.15	Leganés - Lugo	0:0

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