Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 23

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal da Malata (Ferrol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ferrol		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.5
	1.98	2.95	3.6
	2.08	3	3.55
	2.19	2.91	3.75
	2.88	2.09	4.01	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.5
	2.03	3	3.66
	2.08	2.8	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.99)	2.82 ↓ (2.97)	3.65 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrol
42.3%

Draw
32.6%

Lugo
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

30.6%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

31.3%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Ferrol - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parera P. M. (G) 2. Miguel 3. Pujol E. 15. Zalaya A. 17. Ramon A. 8. Gorostidi A. 6. Gonzalez F. 7. Alvaro J. 10. Pascu 11. Dacosta R. 9. Escobar A.	1. Martinez M. (C) 2. Rodriguez Y. 16. Jose Amo 3. Garriz I. 17. Caballo D. 9. Celorio N. 12. Perera A. 8. Balboa A. 5. Gallar A. 19. Unzueta I. 11. Pastrana V.
Substitutes
4. Artetxe M. 19. Azkune E. 12. Chema 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 24. Garcia A. 16. Garcia S. 22. Mardones A. 5. Noriega J. 21. Tavares M. 14. Tejera S.	18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 6. Haro P. 23. Junior L. 33. Munoz M. 13. Piedra I. (G) 22. Samanes S. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Celorio N. 🟨,
33', Caballo D. ↓, Haro P. ↑,
45+6', Dacosta R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Dacosta R. ⚽,
63', Dacosta R. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
63', Escobar A. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Balboa A. ⚽,
73', Celorio N. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
73', Pastrana V. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
73', Alvaro J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
88', Unzueta I. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
88', Gallar A. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
88', Pascu ↓, Azkune E. ↑,
88', Gonzalez F. ↓, Noriega J. ↑,
90+1', Gorostidi A. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 and 10).

Ferrol is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Lugo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ferrol could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ferrol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ferrol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Lugo - the odds 3.81 are the expected chance of winning is 23.81%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.01.26	Zamora - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Ferrol - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Ponferradina - Ferrol	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ferrol - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Pontevedra - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.02.26	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
25.01.26	Real Avilés - Lugo	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lugo - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Arenteiro - Lugo	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Lugo - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Lugo - Ferrol	2:1
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1
06.08.22	Lugo - Ferrol	1:0

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