Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 21

Date: 17 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Reig S. A. (Esp)


	Lugo		Granada

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.4	2.95	2.15
	3.4	3.1	2.25
	3.35	3.05	2.21
	3.65	3.12	2.28
	3.4	3	2.25	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.16	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (3.5)	3.09 ↑ (2.84)	2.22 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
27.2%

Draw
30.4%

Granada
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

32.5%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

31.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Granada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Granada aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.2%	48.3%	34.5%

Lugo - Granada Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). Granada will win (votes: 10 - 34.5%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 48.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 66.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (20.46%), has project points - 42, has currently - 18, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Granada has the most likely position - 1 (14.83%), has project points - 69, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a chance of promoted (42%), has a small chance of win league (15%).

This event has quality 32, importance 53, match rating 43. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lugo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Granada is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Granada could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Granada will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
11.12.22	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
04.12.22	Racing Santander - Lugo	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Lugo - Levante	1:1 ✺
20.11.22	FC Andorra - Lugo	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWTL
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
11.12.22	Granada - Burgos	1:0 ✺
08.12.22	Málaga - Granada	1:1 ✺
02.12.22	Granada - Deportivo Alavés	3:1 ✺
27.11.22	Leganés - Granada	1:0 ✺
18.11.22	Granada - Albacete Balompié	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
20.04.19	Lugo - Granada	1:2
26.08.18	Granada - Lugo	1:1
03.03.18	Lugo - Granada	2:1
08.10.17	Granada - Lugo	2:0

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