Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Karaoglan A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 15
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	FOX Sports 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 12, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Legia Warsaw		Dinamo Minsk

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.33	8.5
	1.37	4.4	7.75
	1.4	4.5	8
	1.41	4.51	8.62
	1.39	4.56	8.01	Watch
	1.33	4.6	8
	1.38	4.89	9.15
	1.4	4.5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.4)	4.54 ↑ (4.3)	8.25 ↑ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
67.9%

Draw
20.7%

Dinamo Minsk
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

21.1%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69%

19.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Dinamo Minsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Minsk than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86%	8%	6%

Legia Warsaw - Dinamo Minsk Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (43 of 50 users predict this - 86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.38% – 95.62%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Kobylak G. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 25. Morishita R. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 82. Luquinhas	21. Lapoukhov F. (G) 2. Pigas V. 33. Polyakov D. 4. Gavrilovich A. 66. Rai 8. Selyava A. (C) 88. Demchenko N. 26. Kalinin V. 74. Sedko P. 9. Alfred S. 19. Podstrelov D.
Substitutes
80. Adkonis J. 17. Alfarela M. 21. Celhaka J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 23. Kun P. 99. Majchrzak J. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 77. Nsame J. 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.	14. Adeola R. 67. Begunov R. 49. Karatai A. (G) 10. Khvashchinskiy V. 3. Okoro J. 25. Pedro Igor 13. Shimakovich I. (G) 11. Zherdev G.
Coaches
Feio G.	Skripchenko V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Luquinhas ⚽, Wszolek P. (A),
13', Gavrilovich A. 🟨,
26', Alfred S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, Gual M. (Pen),
54', Podstrelov D. 🟨,
55', 3 - 0, Luquinhas ⚽, Vinagre R. (A),
59', 4 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Morishita R. (A),
60', Pankov R. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
60', Gual M. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
63', Gavrilovich A. ↓, Zherdev G. ↑,
63', Sedko P. ↓, Adeola R. ↑,
73', Vinagre R. ↓, Kun P. ↑,
73', Luquinhas ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
77', Kapustka B. ↓, Celhaka J. ↑,
80', Pigas V. 🟨,
82', Selyava A. ↓, Okoro J. ↑,
90+2', Augustyniak R. 🟨,

Preview

Legia in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Dinamo Minsk is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Legia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Legia is certain favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Dinamo Minsk: Melnichenko T. (Red Card) Sachivko A. (Injury) Silinsky D. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Legia to win the game is with odds 1.42.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
31.10.24	Miedź Legnica - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.10.24	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Bačka Topola - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.10.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWW
- FC Dinamo Minsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
02.11.24	Dinamo Minsk - Slutsk	2:0 ✺
29.10.24	Dinamo Minsk - Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	HJK - Dinamo Minsk	1:0 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
19.10.24	Dinamo Minsk - Slavia Mozyr	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Naftan - Dinamo Minsk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW

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