Match Info

POLAND: EKSTRAKLASA - ROUND 3

Date: 6 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	Canal+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Legia Warsaw		Ruch Chorzów

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6	Watch
	1.51	4.33	5.75
	1.49	4.5	5.75	Watch
	1.53	4.55	6.1
	1.4	4	5.8	Watch
	1.52	4.35	5.9	Watch
	1.47	4.7	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.37)	4.38 ↓ (5.25)	5.86 ↓ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
62.7%

Draw
21.3%

Ruch Chorzów
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

17.8%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

17.2%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Legia Warsaw's form might have worsened.

Ruch Chorzów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	0%	26.3%

Legia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Ruch Chorzów will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 12. Pankov R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 5. Ribeiro Y. 13. Wszolek P. (C) 21. Celhaka J. 22. Elitim J. 32. Baku M. 39. Rosolek M. 28. Gual M. 7. Pekhart T.	82. Bielecki J. (G) 2. Kasolik K. 21. Sadlok M. (C) 71. Szywacz R. 26. Michalski K. 20. Szymanski S. 6. Swedrowski T. 5. Wojtowicz T. 7. Letniowski J. 22. Starzynski F. 95. Szczepan D.
Substitutes
8. Augustyniak R. 30. Hladun D. (G) 27. Josue 67. Kapustka B. 33. Kun P. 20. Muci E. 99. Slisz B. 18. Sokolowski P. 86. Strzalek I.	25. Baranowski P. 77. Bartolewski M. 1. Buchalik M. (G) 19. Feliks M. 10. Foszmanczyk T. 8. Sikora P. 88. Skwierczynski K. 18. Steczyk D. 4. Szur P.
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Skrobacz J.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Legia won 3.

Legia in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Ruch Chorzów is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ruch Chorzów could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Legia is indisputable favorite.

There are questionable in Ruch Chorzów: Foszmanczyk T. (Injury) Sedlak J. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Legia to win the game is with odds 1.39.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Legia won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Legia won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Legia Warsaw - Ordabasy	3:2 ✺
27.07.23	Ordabasy - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.07.23	Legia Warsaw - ŁKS Łódź	3:0 ✺
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.23	Red Bull Salzburg - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWWW
- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.07.23	Ruch Chorzów - ŁKS Łódź	2:0 ✺
23.07.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Ruch Chorzów	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.23	Odra Opole - Ruch Chorzów	0:2 ✺
14.07.23	Ruch Chorzów - Piast Gliwice	0:1 ✺
08.07.23	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Rzeszów	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.12.22	Legia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.02.17	Legia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	1:3
28.08.16	Ruch Chorzów - Legia Warsaw	0:2
19.04.16	Ruch Chorzów - Legia Warsaw	0:0
28.02.16	Legia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	2:0
20.09.15	Ruch Chorzów - Legia Warsaw	1:4
24.04.15	Ruch Chorzów - Legia Warsaw	0:0

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