Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 4 - ROUND 9

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday


	Leioa		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.1
	3.1	2.8	2.12
	3.2	2.9	2.11
	3.27	2.91	2.16
	3.15	3.15	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (4.14)	2.95 ↓ (3.25)	2.13 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leioa
28%

Draw
30.2%

Barakaldo
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

27.4%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.8%

26.5%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leioa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leioa's performance.

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barakaldo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leioa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barakaldo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leioa - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs) and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leioa won 2.

Recent matches Leioa is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barakaldo in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Barakaldo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Leioa won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 18-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Leioa won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Leioa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
29.10.22	Deusto - Leioa	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Leioa - Touring KE	3:1 ✺
16.10.22	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Leioa	1:2 ✺
08.10.22	Leioa - Durango	1:3 ✺
02.10.22	Padura - Leioa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWWLT
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
30.10.22	Barakaldo - Portugalete	3:1 ✺
22.10.22	Pasaia - Barakaldo	0:4 ✺
16.10.22	Barakaldo - San Ignacio	3:0 ✺
08.10.22	Vitoria - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
02.10.22	Barakaldo - Basconia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.02.22	Leioa - Barakaldo	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
28.03.21	Barakaldo - Leioa	2:0
09.01.21	Leioa - Barakaldo	2:2
02.02.20	Barakaldo - Leioa	1:2
14.09.19	Leioa - Barakaldo	1:3
12.05.19	Leioa - Barakaldo	3:0
22.12.18	Barakaldo - Leioa	0:0

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