Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 8

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Leiria		Leixões

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.45
	2.08	3.29	3.93
	2.03	3.24	3.72	Watch
	1.97	3.34	3.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 (2.04)	3.26 ↓ (3.33)	3.71 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
46%

Draw
28.7%

Leixões
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.2%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

27.8%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Leiria - Leixões Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Leiria (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Leixões (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Leiria will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 52. Sylla H. 16. Ze Pedro 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 18. Lottin A. 20. Gomes B. 6. Rodriguez G. 10. van der Gaag J. 9. Munoz J. (C) 19. Fernandez P.	1. Morro M. (G) 77. Paulinho 3. Figueiredo L. 5. Naldo 11. Agra S. 13. Evrard Zag 36. Dodo D. 15. Simaozinho 9. Bica 91. Valente R. (C) 7. Werton
Substitutes
41. Daniel Borges 11. Jair da Silva 17. Lucho Vega 86. Michel D. 99. Odehnal J. (G) 72. Oliveira V. 21. Pires M. 7. Quizera F. 15. Silva J.	22. Araujo C. 18. Kanuric B. 8. Neto 6. Paulinho 4. Rafael Santos 35. Rochez B. 30. Serif N. 51. Stefanovic I. (G) 88. Yahaya A.
Coaches
Pereira F.	Fonseca J. N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
14', Werton 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Agra S. ⚽,
35', Evrard Zag 🟨,
43', Dodo D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rodriguez G. ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
46', Dodo D. ↓, Neto ↑,
52', Figueiredo L. 🟨,
59', Simaozinho 🟨,
60', 0 - 2, Bica ⚽, Werton (A),
63', 0 - 3, Werton ⚽, Agra S. (A),
64', Sylla H. ↓, Pires M. ↑,
65', Munoz J. ↓, Michel D. ↑,
65', Gomes B. ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
68', Bica ↓, Araujo C. ↑,
71', 1 - 3, Fernandez P. ⚽, Jair da Silva (A),
72', Evrard Zag ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
73', Naldo 🟨,
81', Valente R. ↓, Rochez B. ↑,
82', Werton ↓, Serif N. ↑,
86', Baro M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 14).

Leiria is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Leixões has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leixões may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Leiria is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Leiria won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.25	Leiria - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Portimonense - Leiria	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Sacavenense - Leiria	2:4 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Porto B - Leiria	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTTWW
- Leixões SC
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Amarante - Leixões	1:2 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
05.10.25	Leixões - Sporting Lisbon B	0:4 ✺
26.09.25	Vizela - Leixões	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Naval - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Leixões - Farense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
30.03.25	Leixões - Leiria	0:1
03.11.24	Leiria - Leixões	1:0
06.04.24	Leixões - Leiria	0:0
18.11.23	Leiria - Leixões	0:0

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