Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 16

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Leiria		Vizela

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.9	2.6
	2.52	3.05	2.78
	2.57	3.12	2.82	Watch
	2.63	2.8	2.7
	2.65	2.96	2.75
	2.62	2.9	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.63)	2.96 ↓ (3.3)	2.75 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
35.4%

Draw
31.1%

Vizela
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

28.3%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28.1%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Vizela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vizela than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	81.8%	9.1%

Leiria - Vizela Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Vizela will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 81.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 59% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Leiria (2.10) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Vizela (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Leiria (votes: 1 - 25%). Vizela (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Odehnal J. (G) 68. Maga 6. Rodriguez G. 44. Marcelo 3. Baro M. 21. Pires M. 41. Daniel Borges 19. Fernandez P. 88. Martins D. 9. Munoz J. (C) 86. Michel D.	1. Gomis A. (G) 40. Italo Henrique 4. Rhyner J. (C) 55. Hristov A. 20. Godwin O. 22. Busnic A. 8. Bastunov A. 21. Ramos R. 24. Morschel H. 7. Loppy D. 29. Kitala Y.
Substitutes
25. Amado D. 20. Gomes B. 98. Joao Bravim (G) 8. Kouassi E. 17. Lucho Vega 45. Mendes J. 80. Quilma 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J.	2. Cvijanovic I. 18. Demchenko N. 23. Fortune Y. 77. Jojo 6. Jota Goncalves 5. Moha Moukhliss 92. Souza P. (G) 17. Tavares M. 11. Thio
Coaches
Pereira F.	Silva N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Daniel Borges ⚽, Munoz J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ramos R. ↓, Thio ↑,
46', Busnic A. ↓, Moha Moukhliss ↑,
47', Rhyner J. 🟨,
50', Fernandez P. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Kitala Y. ⚽,
63', Kitala Y. ↓, Fortune Y. ↑,
64', Loppy D. ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
64', Pires M. ↓, Kouassi E. ↑,
70', Godwin O. ↓, Cvijanovic I. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Maga ⚽, Fernandez P. (A),
76', Munoz J. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
76', Michel D. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Marcelo (Own goal),
81', Daniel Borges 🟨,
83', Lucho Vega 🟨,
85', Martins D. ↓, Santos J. ↑,
89', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
90+3', Marcelo 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 4).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Leiria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Leiria has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Leiria won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Vizela	6	3	2	1	7:4	3	11
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leiria - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.51%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
16.01.26	Académico de Viseu - Leiria	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
11.01.26	Torreense - Leiria	3:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
03.01.26	Feirense - Leiria	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vila Meã - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTWW
- FC Vizela
Portuguese Liga 2
15.01.26	Vizela - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
05.01.26	Vizela - Torreense	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Vizela - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Vizela	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Farense - Vizela	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
19.01.25	Vizela - Leiria	1:0
11.08.24	Leiria - Vizela	0:2

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