Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Marcolino de Castro (Santa Maria da Feira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Feirense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3	Watch
	2.42	3.05	2.88
	2.5	3.14	2.89	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.8
	2.48	3.05	2.92	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.52)	3.07 ↓ (3.14)	2.89 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Feirense
37.8%

Draw
30.1%

Leiria
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

29.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

29.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Feirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Feirense than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	70%	30%

Feirense - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Feirense (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Feirense (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meixedo F. (G) 20. Jojo 21. Fernandes E. 4. Leal A. 12. Ze Ricardo 10. Ribeiro T. 33. Costa G. 8. John N. 17. Santos L. 11. Nketia D. 7. Antunes L. (C)	98. Joao Bravim (G) 52. Sylla H. 16. Ze Pedro 6. Rodriguez G. 68. Maga 21. Pires M. 41. Daniel Borges 19. Fernandez P. 9. Munoz J. (C) 10. van der Gaag J. 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
26. Altube D. (G) 23. de Oliveira da Silva P. H. 6. Doumbia D. 32. Edgar Ie 77. Gui Meira 9. Klimov K. 22. Popoola S. 3. Robinho 5. Silva B.	3. Baro M. 1. Carrasco S. (G) 20. Gomes B. 11. Jair da Silva 8. Kouassi E. 17. Lucho Vega 72. Oliveira V. 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J.
Coaches
Costa R.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Antunes L. ⚽, Ribeiro T. (A),
25', John N. 🟨,
32', Costa G. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, van der Gaag J. ⚽,
45+2', Sylla H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Michel D. ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
56', Sylla H. ↓, Baro M. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Fernandez P. ⚽, Baro M. (A),
63', John N. ↓, Popoola S. ↑,
63', Costa G. ↓, Doumbia D. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Fernandes E. ⚽,
71', Nketia D. ↓, de Oliveira da Silva P. H. ↑,
72', Fernandes E. 🟨,
73', Daniel Borges 🟨,
86', Pires M. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
86', Jair da Silva ↓, Santos J. ↑,
90', Ribeiro T. ↓, Klimov K. ↑,
90', Santos L. ↓, Gui Meira ↑,
90', Fernandez P. ↓, Gomes B. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', Daniel Borges 🟨,
90+4', Rodriguez G. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 6).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Feirense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Feirense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10
18	Feirense	6	0	1	5	1:8	-7	1

Last Results with these Odds

Feirense - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.09%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Feirense
Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.25	Feirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Torreense - Feirense	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Feirense - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
01.12.25	Vizela - Feirense	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Feirense - Farense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWTTT
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
21.12.25	Farense - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vila Meã - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Leiria - Felgueiras	2:3 ✺
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Leiria - Benfica B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.25	Feirense - Leiria	2:1
30.11.24	Leiria - Feirense	1:0
04.05.24	Feirense - Leiria	1:0
30.12.23	Leiria - Feirense	1:1
Liga Portugal
29.04.12	Leiria - Feirense	N/A

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