Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui (Itagui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Leones		Envigado

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.65	3.25	1.75
	4.79	3.27	1.83
	4.96	3.41	1.74	Watch
	4.4	3	1.75
	4.84	3.18	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (3.73)	3.22 ↓ (3.32)	1.76 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leones
19.4%

Draw
28.5%

Envigado
52.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

28%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

27%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones's form might have worsened.

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	28.6%	71.4%

Leones - Envigado Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Envigado will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Envigado (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.30) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Arboleda J. (G) 4. Garcia D. 28. Hincapie Ossa J. F. 3. Marmolejo D. 8. Martinez J. 5. Meneses G. 13. Moreno D. 11. Palacios L. 15. Pena J. 16. Renteria J. 21. Segura O.	88. Tovar A. (G) 19. Acuna S. 15. Cuervo G. 7. Dawson D. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 21. Lopez E. 9. Marulanda M. 6. Palacio J. 2. Palacios D. 27. Quejada J. 16. Ramirez N.
Substitutes
23. Castano J. 17. Gonzalez A. . Holguin C. (G) 26. Posada S. 22. Restrepo J. 7. Rodriguez Cespedes C. 20. Ruiz J.	25. Angulo L. 20. Catano J. 8. Espana Alvarez R. C. 23. Hernandez J. 3. Holguin J. 11. Hurtado W. 1. Montoya J. (G) 5. Norena S. 32. Rey J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Renteria J. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Dawson D. ⚽,
26', Ramirez N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ramirez N. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Cuervo G. ⚽,
54', 0 - 3, Dawson D. ⚽,
61', Segura O. ↓, Posada S. ↑,
61', Martinez J. ↓, Rodriguez Cespedes C. ↑,
61', Moreno D. ↓, Castano J. ↑,
71', Acuna S. ↓, Espana Alvarez R. C. ↑,
75', Pena J. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
79', Dawson D. ↓, Rey J. ↑,
79', Marulanda M. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
86', Lopez E. ↓, Hurtado W. ↑,
90', Hincapie Ossa J. F. ↓, Restrepo J. ↑,
90+2', Espana Alvarez R. C. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones won 0.

Recent form of Leones has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Envigado has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Envigado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Envigado is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leones won 0 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Leones won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Envigado	11	2	6	3	12:11	1	12
15	Leones	11	2	4	5	8:17	-9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
03.03.26	Atlético Cali - Leones	0:0 ✺
27.02.26	Leones - Independiente Valle del Cauca	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Real Cartagena - Leones	2:3 ✺
14.02.26	Leones - Unión Magdalena	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Real Cundinamarca - Leones	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 TLWLL
- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera B
05.03.26	Envigado - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1 ✺
24.02.26	Envigado - Deportes Quindío	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Internacional de Palmira - Envigado	2:1 ✺
09.02.26	Envigado - Tigres	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
24.04.19	Envigado - Leones	1:1
13.03.19	Leones - Envigado	0:0
Colombian Primera A
25.08.18	Leones - Envigado	1:1
03.03.18	Envigado - Leones	1:1
Colombian Copa
03.05.17	Leones - Envigado	1:1
16.03.17	Envigado - Leones	1:0
15.04.15	Envigado - Leones	1:1

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