Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jaime Morón León (Cartagena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Real Cartagena		Leones

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.24	5.5	9.8
	1.23	5.71	10.21
	1.31	5.15	8.76	Watch
	1.22	5	11
	1.25	5.72	11	Watch
	1.22	5.5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.33)	5.43 ↑ (5.01)	10.3 ↑ (7.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Cartagena
74.1%

Draw
17%

Leones
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

18.5%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.2%

17.4%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Cartagena than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Real Cartagena - Leones Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Cartagena (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Real Cartagena (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Cartagena (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 7. Aleman J. 4. Barco S. 6. Escobar A. 8. Guevara L. 9. Manotas M. 27. Melendez A. 19. Moreno J. 14. Pino D. 21. Rodriguez J. (C) 24. Tegue G.	12. Arboleda J. (G) 10. Ceballos A. 30. Granados R. 28. Hincapie F. 3. Marmolejo D. 5. Meneses G. (C) 13. Moreno D. 11. Palacios L. 16. Renteria J. 18. Restrepo Alvarez J. 21. Segura O.
Substitutes
18. Ditta Ruiz J. J. 12. Fontalvo R. (G) 26. Graciano C. 25. Long H. 20. Nieva J. 3. Redondo Garcia E. H. 5. Solarte Espana J. A. 29. Tamayo F. 11. Yanes L.	4. Garcia D. 1. Holguin C. (G) 8. Martinez J. 31. Moreno J. 15. Pena J. 7. Rodriguez Cespedes C. 20. Ruiz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Palacios L. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, Palacios L. ⚽,
40', Ceballos A. 🟨,
45+3', Moreno J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ceballos A. ↓, Pena J. ↑,
46', Moreno J. ↓, Graciano C. ↑,
46', Guevara L. ↓, Nieva J. ↑,
50', Graciano C. 🟨,
52', 0 - 3, Hincapie F. ⚽,
53', 🟨,
54', Pena J. 🟨,
60', Moreno D. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
60', Tegue G. ↓, Yanes L. ↑,
62', Melendez A. 🟨,
64', Segura O. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
65', Rodriguez J. ↓, Redondo Garcia E. H. ↑,
71', Aleman J. ↓, Ditta Ruiz J. J. ↑,
76', Palacios L. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
76', Hincapie F. ↓, Rodriguez Cespedes C. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Manotas M. ⚽,
86', 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 3, Manotas M. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 3.

Real Cartagena has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leones has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Real Cartagena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Cartagena is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Real Cartagena won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Cartagena won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19:14	5	15
15	Leones	11	2	4	5	8:17	-9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Cartagena
Colombian Primera B
13.02.26	Real Cartagena - Atlético Cali	4:1 ✺
09.02.26	Bogotá - Real Cartagena	0:1 ✺
04.02.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Real Cartagena	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Real Cartagena - Real Cundinamarca	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Real Santander - Real Cartagena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTWW
- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
14.02.26	Leones - Unión Magdalena	1:3 ✺
08.02.26	Real Cundinamarca - Leones	2:0 ✺
05.02.26	Leones - Bogotá	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Deportes Quindío - Leones	3:0 ✺
26.01.26	Leones - Tigres	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
18.08.25	Real Cartagena - Leones	4:0
17.02.25	Leones - Real Cartagena	1:2
22.09.24	Real Cartagena - Leones	1:0
20.04.24	Leones - Real Cartagena	0:0
11.11.23	Real Cartagena - Leones	1:1
16.10.23	Leones - Real Cartagena	2:1
11.10.23	Leones - Real Cartagena	1:2

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