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Current Win Probability
Leones Negros UdeG 24.2%
Draw 24.9%
Atlante 50.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.7%
27.1%
40.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.4%
26.5%
39.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones Negros UdeG's form might have worsened.
Atlante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlante's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+9.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlante than the current prediction. (-11.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlante, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlante Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 6. Cisneros C. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 3. Flores L. 88. Gonzalez O. 34. Hernandez S. A. 93. Lara M. 4. Ledesma A. (C) 18. Munoz D. 11. Perez J. 2. Sanchez J.
26. Beltran R. (G) 18. Bermudez C. 22. Calzadilla L. 6. Carrera J. N. 3. Cruz D. 27. Escobar A. 34. Jimenez E. 5. Meza H. (C) 24. Pizzuto E. 9. Puente L. 20. Tovar J.
Substitutes
24. Aguayo J. 10. Brigido J. 9. Camacho Lastra R. E. 20. Flores B. 22. Gil O. 7. Rivera E. 86. Torres D. 87. Valenzuela M. 98. Venegas S. 12. Villa O.
10. Alonzo J. 1. Barragan R. (G) 15. Charcopa J. 13. Garcia Pardo M. 16. Gonzalez J. 19. Gonzalez S. 11. Hernandez I. 21. Ibarra J. 17. Mejia L. 4. Olivas Salcedo L. A.
Coaches
Sosa L.
Carbajal R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Meza H. 🟨,
34', Perez J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Puente L. ⚽, Escobar A. (A),
54', 1 - 1, Perez J. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
56', Puente L. 🟨,
57', Gonzalez O. 🟨,
59', Bermudez C. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
60', Calzadilla L. 🟨,
70', Pizzuto E. ↓, Garcia Pardo M. ↑,
71', Puente L. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
74', Munoz D. ↓, Villa O. ↑,
74', Cisneros C. ↓, Camacho Lastra R. E. ↑,
74', Gonzalez O. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
77', Calzadilla L. ↓, Charcopa J. ↑,
77', Jimenez E. ↓, Alonzo J. ↑,
79', Perez J. ↓, Rivera E. ↑,
83', Villa O. 🟨,
87', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
90', Camacho Lastra R. E. 🟨,
90+4', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 0.
Leones Negros UdeG has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Atlante has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Atlante may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Atlante could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 15:31. (average 0.8:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).
Mexico
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Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 
Carrera J. N. 
Gil O. 
Charcopa J. 
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