Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Referee: Thompson M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Lexington		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3.05	2.62
	2.63	3.15	2.9
	2.59	3.07	2.79	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.5	2.94	2.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.56)	3.02 ↓ (3.03)	2.73 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
35.8%

Draw
30.4%

Sacramento Republic
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

30.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Lexington - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lexington will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Sacramento Republic will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sacramento Republic (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 2. Greene J. 5. Burks K. 4. Ordonez A. 22. Hafferty J. 6. Molloy A. (C) 8. Nick Firmino 16. Ferri B. 7. Epps M. 9. Goodrum P. 10. Adedokun M.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 3. Spaulding R. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. (C) 22. Benitez M. 18. Kaye M. 27. Crisostomo D. 10. Rodriguez A. 8. Rodriguez M. 7. Malango M. 11. Ajago F.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 23. Brown J. 14. Caborn A. 77. Lewis J. 11. Midence A. 19. Scott T. 12. Zengue X.	24. Casas J. 42. Chivukula R. 71. Edwards K. 31. Randolph J. (G) 55. Ukaegbu C. 17. Wanner D. 20. Willey B.
Coaches
Hemmi M.	Collins N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Benitez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Nick Firmino ↓, Lewis J. ↑,
63', Hafferty J. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
65', Greene J. 🟨,
67', Rodriguez A. ↓, Casas J. ↑,
67', Malango M. ↓, Wanner D. ↑,
75', Ajago F. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
84', Adedokun M. ↓, Midence A. ↑,
89', Spaulding R. ↓, Ukaegbu C. ↑,

Preview

Sacramento Republic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Lexington - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.01.26	Atlanta United - Lexington	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
25.10.25	Oakland Roots - Lexington	3:0 ✺
17.10.25	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	2:2 ✺
11.10.25	Lexington - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
07.03.26	Sacramento Republic - Tulsa	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	0:1 penalties ✺
25.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Miami	0:1 ✺
22.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
17.10.25	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	2:2
19.07.25	Sacramento Republic - Lexington	0:0

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