Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Hernandez C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Sacramento Republic		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	4.05	5.7
	1.55	4.04	5.47
	1.49	4.61	5.26	Watch
	1.5	4.05	5.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.49)	4.19 ↓ (4.61)	5.61 ↑ (5.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
61.4%

Draw
22.1%

Miami
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

20.1%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

19.5%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Sacramento Republic - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (G) 55. Ukaegbu C. 5. Timmer J. 15. Baker C. 23. Edwards A. 96. Luis Felipe 8. Lopez R. (C) 22. Benitez M. 24. Jamieson L. 9. Herrera J. 10. Parano C.	31. Rodriguez F. (G) 4. Cardona N. 6. Tulu 13. Knutson D. 2. Ricketts J. 8. Romero M. 5. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 18. Zarate T. 10. Blanco S. 7. Gavilanes A. 9. Bonfiglio F.
Substitutes
90. Bennett K. 4. Desmond L. 2. Gurr J. 14. Kimbrough D. 6. Kleemann F. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 3. Spaulding R. 17. Wanner D.	34. Arana V. 22. Celeste F. 16. Diaz G. 12. Martell R. (G) 23. Mas T. 3. Mitrano A. 17. Rivera R. 11. Veron D.
Coaches
Collins N.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Romero M. 🟨,
30', Luis Felipe 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Blanco S. 🟨,
66', Timmer J. ↓, Kleemann F. ↑,
66', Lopez R. ↓, Spaulding R. ↑,
67', Gavilanes A. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
75', Parano C. ↓, Kimbrough D. ↑,
75', Herrera J. ↓, Bennett K. ↑,
75', Zarate T. ↓, Rivera R. ↑,
76', Blanco S. ↓, Veron D. ↑,
87', 0 - 1, Knutson D. ⚽,
88', Bonfiglio F. ↓, Mitrano A. ↑,
88', Edwards A. ↓, Gurr J. ↑,
89', Kimbrough D. 🟨,
90+4', Diaz G. 🟨,

Preview

Sacramento Republic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Miami may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sacramento Republic is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Miami - the odds 5.26 are the expected chance of winning is 17.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
22.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	2:2 ✺
11.10.25	Hartford Athletic - Sacramento Republic	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
04.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Hartford Athletic	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
01.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLLW
- Miami FC
USL Championship
19.10.25	Birmingham Legion - Miami	2:3 ✺
11.10.25	Louisville City - Miami	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Miami - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3:1 ✺
26.09.25	North Carolina - Miami	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Miami - Rhode Island	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
16.03.24	Miami - Sacramento Republic	0:1
14.10.23	Sacramento Republic - Miami	1:0

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