Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Scheer J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Sacramento Republic		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.1	3.8
	1.92	3.1	4.05
	1.92	3.2	4.7
	1.89	3.3	4.21	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4
	1.91	3.14	4.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (1.99)	3.12 ↑ (3.11)	4.19 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
48.6%

Draw
29.4%

Orange County SC
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

29.6%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.1%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (G) 3. Spaulding R. 2. Gurr J. 4. Desmond L. (C) 22. Benitez M. 16. Wolff T. 24. Casas J. 15. Essel A. 7. Malango M. 10. Rodriguez A. 11. Ajago F.	1. Rando A. (G) 21. War M. 5. Brewitt T. 6. Tubbs G. 23. Doghman R. 27. Kelly S. 8. Sylla O. 4. Benalcazar N. 11. MacKinnon L. 22. Marinch A. 9. Zubak E.
Substitutes
42. Chivukula R. 71. Edwards K. 14. Kimbrough D. 31. Randolph J. (G) 55. Ukaegbu C. 17. Wanner D. 20. Willey B.	12. Bazini Y. 14. Cambridge B. 2. Doody G. 15. Espy T. 10. Hegardt C. 17. Johnson J. 31. Kadono T. (G) 25. Solis E.
Coaches
Collins N.	Stone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', MacKinnon L. (Penalty Awarded),
11', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
18', Desmond L. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Kelly S. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Gurr J. (A),
58', Marinch A. ↓, Hegardt C. ↑,
61', Essel A. 🟨,
69', MacKinnon L. ↓, Cambridge B. ↑,
69', Zubak E. ↓, Bazini Y. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Bazini Y. ⚽,
74', Ajago F. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,
74', Wolff T. ↓, Wanner D. ↑,
78', Spaulding R. ↓, Willey B. ↑,
83', Brewitt T. 🟨,
84', Sylla O. ↓, Espy T. ↑,
87', Essel A. ↓, Ukaegbu C. ↑,
89', 2 - 2, Edwards K. ⚽,
90+5', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sacramento Republic is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Cup
25.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Spokane Velocity	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
21.04.26	Brooklyn - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
14.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Minnesota United	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
11.04.26	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTW
- Orange County SC
USL Cup
25.04.26	Orange County SC - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Orange County SC - Lexington	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tulsa - Orange County SC	0:1 ✺
08.04.26	Orange County SC - San Antonio	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
02.11.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	0:1 penalties
01.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	2:1
USL Cup
28.06.25	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	1:0
USL Championship
12.04.25	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	2:1
20.04.24	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	0:2
09.03.24	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	2:2
26.08.23	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	0:2

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