Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+


	Libertad Asuncion		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3	3.25
	2.22	2.98	3.25	Watch
	2.34	2.95	3.53
	2.33	2.99	3.35	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.3
	2.28	2.95	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.1)	2.94 ↓ (3.04)	3.31 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
41%

Draw
31.3%

Nacional Asuncion
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

30.4%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

30.1%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 34. Villalba E. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 14. Fretes A. 15. Benitez A. 26. Caballero H. 22. Martinez H. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 8. Carrizo F. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)	30. Rojas S. (C) 21. Feliu J. 26. Coronel M. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 14. Diaz F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 13. Meza L. 18. Valdez I. 8. Jara F. 27. Prieto R. 9. Benitez H. A.
Substitutes
11. Aguilar G. 6. Campuzano A. 32. Delvalle S. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 18. Franco I. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 2. Ramirez I. 19. Recalde J. 30. Vera O. R.	11. Almeida M. 10. Arrua C. 7. Bailone I. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 23. Espinola C. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 19. Gonzales L. 4. Langers J. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J.
Coaches
Arce F.	Gimenez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Villalba E. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Melgarejo L. ⚽, Fretes A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diaz F. ↓, Gaona Lugo O. ↑,
46', Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↓, Santacruz J. ↑,
46', Martinez H. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
46', Villalba E. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
57', Feliu J. 🟨,
62', Benitez H. A. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,
62', Jara F. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Melgarejo L. (Penalty Awarded),
65', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Delvalle S. ↑,
68', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
68', Melgarejo L. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
73', Meza L. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
79', Carrizo F. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Valdez I. ⚽, Santacruz J. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Libertad might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:18. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.5:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.95%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.03.26	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
02.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	0:7 ✺
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWLL
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	1:0 ✺
09.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
26.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Nacional Asuncion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
27.09.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	3:1
19.07.25	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1
11.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0
29.01.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:3
Copa Paraguay
06.12.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.09.24	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
28.07.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:2

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