Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Libertad Asuncion		Sportivo Luqueño

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.1	3.9	Watch
	2	3.1	3.4
	1.92	3.25	3.8	Watch
	1.97	3.68	3.78
	2	3.32	3.81	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.6
	1.93	3.55	3.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.73)	3.33 ↓ (3.35)	3.71 ↓ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
47.4%

Draw
27.7%

Sportivo Luqueño
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

27.3%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

27.3%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Sportivo Luqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 5. Viera D. 35. Diaz E. 4. Gimenez N. 6. Campuzano A. 27. Molinas A. 15. Benitez A. 10. Melgarejo L. (C) 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 11. Aguilar G.	12. Aguilar A. (C) 5. Villalba A. 6. Wiechniak F. 2. Riveros P. 34. Martinez Cubilla A. M. 16. Benitez A. 18. Quintana S. 11. Ruiz O. 8. Bogado G. 7. Pereira K. 20. Maggi I.
Substitutes
26. Caballero H. 8. Carrizo F. 28. Fernandez M. 31. Fernandez T. 14. Fretes A. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 33. Martinez C. 22. Martinez H. 19. Recalde J. 7. Rojas M. 34. Villalba E. 23. Villalba P.	24. Balbuena A. 14. Benitez F. 21. Bobadilla F. 3. Brizuela A. 30. Franco T. 28. Gamarra J. 9. Gonzalez W. 23. Maiz A. 15. Maldonado S. 1. Mongelos F. (G) 35. Pereira A. 25. Ramos J.
Coaches
Arce F.	Sarabia P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Diaz E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ramirez I. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
46', Diaz E. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
58', Campuzano A. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Molinas A. ⚽,
62', Pereira K. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
67', Bogado G. ↓, Maiz A. ↑,
68', Quintana S. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
71', Aguilar G. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
78', Gimenez N. 🟨,
80', Ruiz O. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
85', Melgarejo L. ↓, Fretes A. ↑,
88', Gonzalez W. 🟨,
90+5', Espinoza Acosta M. D. 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 10 and 8)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3.

Libertad is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sportivo Luqueño's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Libertad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Libertad is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 12 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 37:11. (average 1.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:3. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
9	Sp. Luqueno	13	4	1	8	14:24	-10	13

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 52.78%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Luqueño - the odds 4.58 are the expected chance of winning is 19.94%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Libertad Asuncion	0:7 ✺
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLT
- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Rubio Ñu	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Sportivo Luqueño	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	3:2 ✺
13.02.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Luqueño	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
13.09.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:4
05.07.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	0:1
11.05.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:0
28.02.25	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:0
Copa Paraguay
13.11.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.11.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	0:0
28.08.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	1:1

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