Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 13 July 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta (Asunción)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Libertad Asuncion		Tigre

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.75	Watch
	1.71	3.4	5.25
	1.73	3.5	5
	1.69	3.6	5.57
	1.67	3.2	5.25
	1.7	3.52	5.35	Watch
	1.68	3.5	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.96)	3.46 ↑ (3.37)	5.4 ↑ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
55.4%

Draw
27.2%

Tigre
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.8%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.6%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Libertad Asuncion's performance.

Tigre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tigre might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigre than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tigre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	13%	13%

Libertad Asuncion - Tigre Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Tigre will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 56% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva M. (G) 33. Piris I. 5. Viera D. 3. Barboza A. 17. Espinoza M. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 23. Gomez D. 10. Melgarejo L. 15. Villalba H. 24. Santa C. R.	23. Marinelli G. (G) 4. Ortega M. 2. Aguilera E. 6. Luciatti B. 20. Prieto S. 24. Garay M. 10. Menossi L. 15. Cardozo A. 18. Armoa B. 7. Obando A. 32. Retegui M.
Substitutes
13. Alcaraz A. 20. Bareiro A. 14. Cardozo L. 7. Cardozo O. 4. Gimenez N. 30. Gonzalez D. 19. Lezcano R. 18. Mayada C. 11. Mendieta W. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C.	29. Badaloni T. 17. Blondel L. 36. Cabrera V. 16. Castro A. 38. Fernandez T. 22. Flores G. 26. Forclaz E. 21. Medina S. 28. Molinas A. 13. Montoya L. 33. Rojas S. (G) 27. Zabala C.
Coaches
Garnero D.	Sara J.

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Tigre could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Libertad is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
07.07.23	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.06.23	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
09.06.23	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTTLL
- CA Tigre
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.07.23	Instituto Córdoba - Tigre	0:1 ✺
05.07.23	Tigre - Banfield	1:2 ✺
02.07.23	Defensa y Justicia - Tigre	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.06.23	São Paulo - Tigre	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.06.23	Tigre - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
18.04.13	Libertad Asuncion - Tigre	3:5
21.02.13	Tigre - Libertad Asuncion	0:2

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