Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 6 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Arena da Baixada (Curitiba)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Germany	Sport 1+
Portugal	Sport TV


	Athletico Paranaense		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.73	3.4	5
	1.75	3.65	4.8
	1.76	3.58	5.32
	1.67	3.4	4.33
	1.71	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.74	3.4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.79)	3.52 ↑ (3.46)	4.96 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Libertadores with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS En Espa√±ol (Canada)

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
54.4%

Draw
26.7%

Libertad Asuncion
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

27.1%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

29.3%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.5%	6.5%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (29 of 31 users predict this - 93.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bento (G) 22. Madson 34. Pedro Henrique 44. Thiago Heleno 6. Fernando 26. Erick 80. Alex Santana 14. Canobbio A. 10. David Terans 28. Cuello 9. Vitor Roque	1. Silva M. (G) 33. Piris I. 5. Viera D. 3. Barboza A. 17. Espinoza M. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 23. Gomez D. 15. Villalba H. 7. Cardozo O. 30. Gonzalez D.
Substitutes
88. Christian 17. Hugo Moura 4. Kaique Rocha 2. Khellven 18. Leo Cittadini 23. Leo Linck (G) 7. Marcelo Cirino 35. Romulo 19. Thiago Andrade 8. Vitor Bueno 11. Willian Bigode 3. Ze Ivaldo	13. Alcaraz A. 14. Cardozo L. 28. Fernandez M. 4. Gimenez N. 19. Lezcano R. 18. Mayada C. 11. Mendieta W. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 9. Oviedo A. 2. Ramirez I. 16. Riveros C. 24. Santa C. R.
Coaches
Paulo Turra	Garnero D.

Preview

Recent matches Athletico PR is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Libertad is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Libertad have a series of guest games.

In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Athletico PR won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Athletico PR won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	Red Bull Bragantino - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
28.05.23	General Caballero JLM - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.05.23	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0 ✺
16.05.23	Guaireña - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.05.23	Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
05.07.22	Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense	1:1
28.06.22	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	2:1
18.05.22	Athletico Paranaense - Libertad Asuncion	2:0
26.04.22	Libertad Asuncion - Athletico Paranaense	1:0

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