Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 22

Date: 27 July 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Mushuc Runa		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.00	6.50	Watch
	1.47	4.00	5.25
	1.57	4.00	5.20	Watch
	1.51	4.41	6.36
	1.51	4.31	5.89	Watch
	1.47	4.35	6.25
	1.50	4.00	6.51	Watch
	1.50	4.15	5.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.58)	4.15 ↑ (3.95)	5.93 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
62%

Draw
22.4%

Libertad Loja
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

23.3%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

20.8%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mushuc Runa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mushuc Runa will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 7. Minda T. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 28. Perea M. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Carrillo R.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 2. Morinigo R. 6. Caicedo B. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 63. Valencia C. 30. Bravo J. 49. Coronel D. 33. Chere A.
Substitutes
61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 22. Collaguazo J. (G) 19. Corozo B. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.	52. Bao A. (G) 27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 7. Orejuela C. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 18. Quinonez Y.
Coaches
Velez P.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', Biojo R. 🟨,
63', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
63', Coronel D. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
68', Minda T. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
68', Ibarra R. ↓, Lemos L. ↑,
73', Branda V. ↓, Pineda Arana X. E. ↑,
75', Perea M. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
82', Bravo J. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
83', Morinigo R. 🟨,
84', 0 - 1, Pineda Arana X. E. ⚽,
90', 0 - 2, Orejuela C. ⚽, Caicedo E. (A),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 13 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Mushuc Runa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mushuc Runa is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.26	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
20.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1 ✺
14.07.26	Deportivo Macará - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	1:4 ✺
06.07.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWLLW
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.07.26	Libertad Loja - Delfín	1:0 ✺
18.07.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
15.07.26	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	LDU Quito - Libertad Loja	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
06.04.26	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2
09.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	1:2
19.04.25	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:1
Ecuadorian Copa
26.09.24	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.08.24	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:2
02.03.24	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	2:1
02.09.23	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	0:1

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