Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 27

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	SD Aucas		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.6	5.75	Watch
	1.50	3.80	5.25
	1.52	3.75	5.7	Watch
	1.55	3.97	6.38
	1.54	3.91	6.21	Watch
	1.54	3.85	6.1
	1.6	3.66	5.85	Watch
	1.55	3.7	5.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.48)	3.78 ↓ (4.12)	5.81 ↓ (6.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
59.8%

Draw
24.4%

Libertad Loja
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

22.7%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

24.8%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SD Aucas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-3%)

SD Aucas - Libertad Loja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (C) 16. Gustavino L. 14. Tapiero S. 4. Burdisso M. 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 37. Zova A. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 17. Zambrano C. 9. Monti R.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 18. Quinonez Y. 70. Branda V. 63. Valencia C. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 49. Coronel D. 33. Chere A.
Substitutes
7. Andrade J. M. 11. Bolanos R. 12. Cabezas J. (G) 31. Carabali B. 34. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 30. Oyola B. 5. Serpa T. 57. Vera M.	11. Batalla H. 30. Bravo J. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 23. Guisamano J. 1. Mina P. (G)
Coaches
Araujo N.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Gustavino L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Monti R. ↓, Carcelen Carabali M. A. ↑,
63', Zambrano C. ↓, Bolanos R. ↑,
69', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
69', Pineda Arana X. E. ↓, Bravo J. ↑,
71', Guzman P. 🟨,
76', Coronel D. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
76', Branda V. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Quinonez R. ⚽,
79', Quinonez Y. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
89', Burdisso M. ↓, Vera M. ↑,
90', Quinonez O. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.

Aucas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Libertad is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aucas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Aucas is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Copa
26.08.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	1:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.08.26	Delfín - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
16.08.26	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
12.08.26	La Unión - SD Aucas	1:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.08.26	SD Aucas - Leones del Norte	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLWW
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.08.26	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
10.08.26	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Libertad Loja - Orense	3:0 ✺
27.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.6 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2
22.08.25	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2
05.05.25	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	2:0
26.10.24	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	1:1
Ecuadorian Copa
04.09.24	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	0:1
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.05.24	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	2:0
27.08.23	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	1:2

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