Match Info

Virsliga - Round 21

Date: 30 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Daugavas stadions (Liepāja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Liepāja		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.29	5.25	7.25
	1.30	4.90	7.00	Watch
	1.34	5.40	8.83
	1.44	4.4	6.68	Watch
	1.29	5.30	8.70
	1.29	5.30	7.27
	1.29	5.20	7.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.34)	5.11 ↑ (4.8)	7.62 ↑ (6.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liepāja
69.8%

Draw
18.1%

Ogre United
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

18.9%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71%

18%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Liepāja - Ogre United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ogre United (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Liepāja (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Liepāja will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 1 - 50%). Ogre United (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Oss D. (G) 35. Sorokins V. 4. Martins M. (C) 3. Iljins K. 5. Silva A. 6. Rodolphe E. 22. Mushindi I. 31. Amatkarijo C. 55. Fellipe Vieira 23. Haidara A. 18. Oloko E.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 37. Lormanis M. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 77. Marusii M. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 8. Mickevics T. 30. Doroshenko A. 19. Cudars K. 10. Kalnins M. 99. Machado F.
Substitutes
14. Gueye D. 26. Isajevs V. 28. Korobenko A. 29. Lakutis L. 44. Leidsman K. 7. Ogunniyi A. 12. Petkovic D. (G) 9. Pulis I.	14. Aditajs R. 20. Biscuhis K. (G) 18. Evelons E. 5. Hayashi K. 71. Marchuk A. 3. Marusiy T. 17. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 6. Vejkrigers D.
Coaches
Vassiljev V.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Fellipe Vieira ⚽, Oloko E. (A),
28', 2 - 0, Haidara A. ⚽, Amatkarijo C. (A),
33', Mickevics T. 🟨,
45+1', 3 - 0, Fellipe Vieira ⚽, Sorokins V. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Machado F. ↓, Marchuk A. ↑,
46', Mickevics T. ↓, Mashchenko V. ↑,
46', Lormanis M. ↓, Evelons E. ↑,
46', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Leidsman K. ↑,
62', Kalnins M. ↓, Pacepko M. ↑,
63', Rodolphe E. ↓, Korobenko A. ↑,
63', Amatkarijo C. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
63', 4 - 0, Oloko E. ⚽, Korobenko A. (A),
70', Gulbis K. ↓, Marusiy T. ↑,
72', Pacepko M. 🟨,
75', Haidara A. ↓, Ogunniyi A. ↑,
83', Iljins K. ↓, Isajevs V. ↑,
90+1', Martins M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Liepāja is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Liepāja won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41:43	-2	43
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
26.06.26	Liepāja - RFS	0:2 ✺
21.06.26	Riga - Liepāja	4:0 ✺
16.06.26	Grobiņa - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
12.06.26	Liepāja - Super Nova	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWW
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2 ✺
22.06.26	RFS - Ogre United	6:0 ✺
17.06.26	Jelgava - Ogre United	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Ogre United - Riga	1:4 ✺
30.05.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
12.05.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:1
20.03.26	Ogre United - Liepāja	0:1

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