Match Info

Virsliga - Round 16

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Daugavas stadions (Liepāja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Liepāja		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.95	3.95	Watch
	1.79	4.05	3.9
	1.67	3.87	4.51	Watch
	1.75	3.5	3.8
	1.62	3.84	4.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.6)	3.84 ↓ (4)	4.13 ↓ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Liepāja
53.8%

Draw
23.9%

Tukums 2000
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

22.9%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

22.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liepāja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Tukums 2000 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Liepāja, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Liepāja - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Liepāja (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Oss D. (C) 28. Korobenko A. 4. Martins M. 33. Korotkovs I. 5. Silva A. 22. Mushindi I. 14. Gueye D. 70. Patijcuks D. 55. Fellipe Vieira 23. Haidara A. 44. Leidsman K.	97. Baturins I. (G) 8. Reingolcs R. 88. Stals M. 25. Joksts H. 46. Enyou A. 17. Derkach M. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 4. Anmanis Kaspars 7. Shibata S. 22. Baumanis R. 27. Deruzinskis R.
Substitutes
31. Amatkarijo C. 3. Iljins K. 29. Lakutis L. 7. Ogunniyi A. 11. Patrikejevs I. 12. Petkovic D. (G) 35. Sorokins V.	18. Calbergs D. 15. Kirss R. 16. Klavins K. 11. Leoni 35. Minajevs K. (G) 14. Putrans D. 30. Susts M. 5. Toba J. 21. Valmiers D.
Coaches
Goba J.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', Samoilovs B. 🟨,
16', Stals M. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Fellipe Vieira (Penalty Awarded),
32', Patijcuks D. ↓, Patrikejevs I. ↑,
37', 2 - 0, Leidsman K. ⚽,
45+3', Fellipe Vieira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 3 - 0, Gueye D. ⚽, Korobenko A. (A),
60', Reingolcs R. 🟨,
63', Reingolcs R. ↓, Valmiers D. ↑,
63', Anmanis Kaspars ↓, Toba J. ↑,
63', Deruzinskis R. ↓, Kirss R. ↑,
63', Joksts H. ↓, Susts M. ↑,
66', Fellipe Vieira ↓, Ogunniyi A. ↑,
66', Haidara A. ↓, Amatkarijo C. ↑,
75', Ogunniyi A. 🟨,
83', Samoilovs B. ↓, Putrans D. ↑,
83', Dislers K. 🟨,
84', Mushindi I. ↓, Sorokins V. ↑,
84', Silva A. ↓, Iljins K. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tukums 2000 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Liepāja is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 43:21. (average 2.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Liepāja won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:10. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	FK Liepaja	31	12	7	12	41:43	-2	43
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
26.05.26	Jelgava - Liepāja	1:1 ✺
22.05.26	Auda Riga - Liepāja	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	2:1 ✺
12.05.26	Liepāja - Ogre United	4:1 ✺
08.05.26	RFS - Liepāja	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLWWL
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
25.05.26	RFS - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
20.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Riga	1:3 ✺
15.05.26	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	3:3 ✺
11.05.26	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:1 ✺
07.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
17.04.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:2
14.09.25	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	4:1
25.06.25	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	1:3
06.05.25	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:2
12.03.25	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	0:0
01.09.24	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	3:1
20.06.24	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1

Upcoming Matches