Match Info

Virsliga - Round 34

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Daugavas stadions (Liepāja) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	13:00	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Liepāja		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.34	4.75	6.50
	1.36	4.50	6.00
	1.34	5.34	8.55
	1.45	4.73	5.8	Watch
	1.32	5.05	8.45
	1.29	5.00	7.48
	1.34	5.00	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.6)	4.91 ↑ (3.9)	7.11 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liepāja
68.3%

Draw
18.8%

Tukums 2000
13%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.8%

23.2%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

22.3%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Liepāja's performance.

Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tukums 2000 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Liepāja that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tukums 2000 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Liepāja - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Liepāja will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Liepāja (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Oss D. (G) 28. Korobenko A. 34. Talisca 4. Martins M. 3. Iljins K. 5. Strumia L. (C) 6. Rodolphe E. 7. Ogunniyi A. 44. Leidsman K. 70. Patijcuks D. 18. Oloko E.	1. Vilkovs S. (G) 16. Klavins K. 6. Volkovs K. 8. Reingolcs R. 21. Valmiers D. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 29. Shigema K. 5. Toba J. 4. Anmanis Kaspars 19. Radzenieks D. 27. Deruzinskis R.
Substitutes
9. Crysthyan 23. Haidara A. 26. Isajevs V. 77. Leite A. 17. Melnis B. 22. Mushindi I. 12. Petkovic D. (G) 35. Sorokins V. 2. Straalman B.	18. Calbergs D. 35. Ivanausks I. (G) 25. Joksts H. 12. Kuprins A. (G) 28. Melkis R. 7. Shibata S. 22. Sprukts E. 88. Stals M. 30. Susts M.
Coaches
Goba J.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Rodolphe E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Valmiers D. 🟨,
55', Rodolphe E. ↓, Straalman B. ↑,
60', Valmiers D. ↓, Melkis R. ↑,
72', Toba J. 🟨,
75', Ogunniyi A. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
75', Leidsman K. ↓, Crysthyan ↑,
80', Klavins K. 🟨,
85', Shigema K. ↓, Shibata S. ↑,
85', Radzenieks D. ↓, Joksts H. ↑,
85', Patijcuks D. ↓, Melnis B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liepāja won 3.

Liepāja has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Tukums 2000 is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Liepāja for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Liepāja has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:21 (averaging 2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Liepāja against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 21:8 goals (averaging 2.1:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46:46	0	47
9	Tukums 2000	34	5	10	19	44:65	-21	25

Last Results with these Odds

Liepāja - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 56.76%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Tukums 2000 - the odds 4.52 are the expected chance of winning is 20.03%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
18.10.26	Liepāja - Jelgava	3:0 ✺
12.10.26	Liepāja - Auda Riga	2:3 ✺
19.09.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Ogre United - Liepāja	2:2 ✺
07.09.26	RFS - Liepāja	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTTT
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
19.10.26	RFS - Tukums 2000	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Tukums 2000 - Riga	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Grobiņa	1:1 ✺
10.09.26	Super Nova - Tukums 2000	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
02.08.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:1
30.05.26	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	3:0
17.04.26	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:2
14.09.25	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	4:1
25.06.25	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	1:3
06.05.25	Tukums 2000 - Liepāja	2:2
12.03.25	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	0:0

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