Match Info

Virsliga - Round 18

Date: 17 June 2026, Wednesday

Location: Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs (Jelgava)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Jelgava		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.10	6.00
	1.58	3.7	5.4	Watch
	1.64	4	5.36
	1.45	4.62	6.05	Watch
	1.6	3.4	5
	1.61	3.9	5.2	Watch
	1.53	3.85	5.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.68)	3.94 ↑ (3.6)	5.48 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelgava
59.7%

Draw
23.4%

Ogre United
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.2%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

21.3%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelgava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jelgava's performance.

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jelgava that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ogre United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Jelgava - Ogre United Predictions

Users Predictions: Jelgava will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dvorak A. (G) 19. Petersons A. (C) 13. Novikovs J. 4. Kangars A. 3. Semesko M. 25. Prior L. 9. Becers R. 10. Holoubek D. 8. Melkis R. 22. Pudil M. 20. Patika G.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 37. Lormanis M. 3. Marusiy T. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 6. Vejkrigers D. 10. Kalnins M. 8. Mickevics T. 19. Cudars K. 5. Hayashi K. 18. Evelons E. 21. Ivulans M.
Substitutes
30. Belanik S. (G) 28. Deklavs A. 24. Hasek F. 11. Hasek M. 7. Janovskis A. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 18. Smaukstelis E. 5. Smirnovs I.	14. Aditajs R. 20. Biscuhis K. (G) 47. Johnson K. 7. Kumakura K. 17. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 28. Sedols D. 9. Silagailis H. 23. Sprukts E.
Coaches
Basovs A.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Ivulans M. ⚽, Kalnins M. (A),
41', Holoubek D. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Prior L. ↓, Kacanovs G. ↑,
46', Gulbis K. ↓, Johnson K. ↑,
46', Holoubek D. ↓, Smaukstelis E. ↑,
46', Pudil M. ↓, Deklavs A. ↑,
50', Mickevics T. 🟨,
52', Novikovs J. 🟨,
61', Patika G. ↓, Janovskis A. ↑,
77', Ivulans M. ↓, Mashchenko V. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Semesko M. (Own goal),
84', Kalnins M. ↓, Silagailis H. ↑,
89', Cudars K. 🟨,
90+2', Evelons E. ↓, Sedols D. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga).

In recent matches, Jelgava has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ogre United has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Jelgava is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jelgava won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
10	Ogre United	32	4	6	22	31:78	-47	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
13.06.26	Auda Riga - Jelgava	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	Jelgava - Liepāja	1:1 ✺
21.05.26	RFS - Jelgava	4:0 ✺
16.05.26	Riga - Jelgava	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 TTTLT
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
13.06.26	Ogre United - Riga	1:4 ✺
30.05.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	2:0 ✺
25.05.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1 ✺
21.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Super Nova - Ogre United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
27.04.26	Ogre United - Jelgava	0:1

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