Match Info

Virsliga - Round 20

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Ogre United		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.60	3.50	1.78
	3.65	3.50	1.80	Watch
	3.09	3.7	2.16
	3.96	3.84	1.8	Watch
	3	3.6	2.13
	3.87	3.64	1.76	Watch
	3.05	3.5	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.32)	3.61 ↑ (3.45)	1.93 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
26.6%

Draw
25.5%

Tukums 2000
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

26.4%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

25%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Tukums 2000 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Ogre United - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tukums 2000 will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 37. Lormanis M. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 6. Vejkrigers D. 10. Kalnins M. 5. Hayashi K. 8. Mickevics T. 17. Mashchenko V. 19. Cudars K. 18. Evelons E.	97. Baturins I. (G) 8. Reingolcs R. 88. Stals M. 25. Joksts H. 46. Enyou A. 17. Derkach M. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 4. Anmanis Kaspars 7. Shibata S. 27. Deruzinskis R. 11. Leoni
Substitutes
14. Aditajs R. 20. Biscuhis K. (G) 30. Doroshenko A. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 47. Johnson K. 99. Machado F. 77. Marusii M. 11. Pacepko M. 28. Sedols D.	22. Baumanis R. 18. Calbergs D. 16. Klavins K. 37. Matsubara T. 28. Melkis R. 35. Minajevs K. (G) 30. Susts M. 5. Toba J. 21. Valmiers D.
Coaches
Mazurs V.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 1 - 0, Cudars K. ⚽, Lormanis M. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Deruzinskis R. ⚽, Derkach M. (A),
31', 1 - 2, Deruzinskis R. ⚽, Anmanis Kaspars (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Evelons E. ↓, Johnson K. ↑,
57', Mashchenko V. ↓, Marusii M. ↑,
57', Gulbis K. ↓, Doroshenko A. ↑,
60', Mickevics T. 🟨,
73', Stals M. 🟨,
76', Mickevics T. ↓, Estevez Fernandez L. ↑,
76', Vejkrigers D. ↓, Machado F. ↑,
77', Leoni ↓, Baumanis R. ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Machado F. ⚽, Marusii M. (A),
85', Enyou A. 🟨,
90+2', Anmanis Kaspars 🟨,
90+8', Reingolcs R. 🟥,
90+9', 3 - 2, Cudars K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Nakotnes liga and 8).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Tukums 2000 is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:7. (average 1:3.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ogre United won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24
10	Ogre United	31	4	6	21	30:76	-46	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
22.06.26	RFS - Ogre United	6:0 ✺
17.06.26	Jelgava - Ogre United	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Ogre United - Riga	1:4 ✺
30.05.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	2:0 ✺
25.05.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLLT
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
21.06.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	4:1 ✺
17.06.26	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	3:0 ✺
25.05.26	RFS - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
07.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	6:1
15.03.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	1:1

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