Match Info

Virsliga - Round 32

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija (Ogre) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	14:00	Sportacentrs TV, Virsliga Plus


	Ogre United		BFC Daugavpils

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.70	3.70	1.73
	3.55	3.55	1.81
	4.04	3.95	1.80
	3.97	4.06	1.75	Watch
	4.00	3.90	1.75
	3.88	3.98	1.78	Watch
	3.75	3.70	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (3.3)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	1.77 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre United
24%

Draw
24%

BFC Daugavpils
52%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.3%

25.7%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

24.5%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

BFC Daugavpils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BFC Daugavpils's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFC Daugavpils than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 5. Sibass R. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 27. Molotkovs A. 7. Pulis I. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 19. Cudars K. 30. Doroshenko A. 10. Kalnins M. 9. Fokam J.	12. Beks J. (G) 37. Mihalcovs G. 5. Papa 8. Skrebels R. 20. Taty C. 11. Yakubu J. 10. Ivanovs E. (C) 4. Mukwelle W. 9. Traore A. 97. Kivinda D. 19. Pinaskins E.
Substitutes
20. Biscuhis K. (G) 18. Evelons E. 21. Ivulans M. 71. Marchuk A. 3. Marusiy T. 17. Mashchenko V. 11. Pacepko M. 6. Vejkrigers D. 2. Ziemelis R.	77. Aizups R. 3. Ayebadiepreye D. 6. Barkovskis N. 66. Bujanovs K. 27. Kopilovs M. 34. Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. 1. Saveljevs J. (G)
Coaches
Mazurs V.	Kurbatov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', Ivanovs E. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Traore A. ⚽, Kivinda D. (A),
31', 1 - 1, Fokam J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Doroshenko A. 🟨,
58', 1 - 2, Traore A. ⚽,
63', Fokam J. ↓, Pacepko M. ↑,
63', Doroshenko A. ↓, Marusiy T. ↑,
66', Mukwelle W. ↓, Ouled-Haj-M'hand Z. ↑,
68', Skrebels R. 🟨,
74', Pulis I. ↓, Marchuk A. ↑,
85', Kudelkins A. ↓, Ziemelis R. ↑,
85', Kivinda D. ↓, Ayebadiepreye D. ↑,
85', Molotkovs A. 🟨,
85', Estevez Fernandez L. ↓, Ivulans M. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

Bookmakers give the edge to Daugavpils for this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:12 (averaging 0.8:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ogre United against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 0:4 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40:37	3	48
10	Ogre United ✔	34	4	6	24	34:85	-51	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
20.09.26	Ogre United - Super Nova	1:0 ✺
16.09.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Ogre United - Liepāja	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Ogre United - RFS	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLTLL
- BFC Daugavpils
Latvian Virsliga
19.09.26	Liepāja - BFC Daugavpils	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Riga - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
02.09.26	BFC Daugavpils - Auda Riga	2:3 penalties ✺
Latvian Virsliga
29.08.26	Grobiņa - BFC Daugavpils	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Cup
14.08.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1
Latvian Virsliga
19.07.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	0:4
21.05.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	3:1
07.04.26	BFC Daugavpils - Ogre United	2:1

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