Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Play Offs - Final

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Ligorna		Varese

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.05	4.25
	1.86	2.74	4.47
	1.97	2.73	4.59	Watch
	1.85	2.9	3.9
	1.88	3.18	3.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.6)	2.92 ↓ (3.68)	4.23 ↓ (4.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ligorna
47.9%

Draw
30.8%

Varese
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

24.7%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

23.5%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ligorna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ligorna's form might have worsened.

Varese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ligorna than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ligorna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varese than the current prediction. (-4%)

Ligorna - Varese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, ⚽,
44', 3 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
53', 4 - 0, ⚽,
59', 4 - 1, ⚽,
61', 4 - 2, ⚽,
74', 5 - 2, ⚽,
78', 5 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ligorna won 3.

Ligorna is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Varese has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Varese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ligorna is considered a favorite.

We predict that Ligorna will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ligorna won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ligorna won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	11:10	1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCD Ligorna 1922
Italian Serie D - Group A
10.05.26	Ligorna - Chisola	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Ligorna - NovaRomentin	9:1 ✺
26.04.26	Asti - Ligorna	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ligorna - Biellese	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Chisola - Ligorna	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWTWT
- Varese FC
Italian Serie D - Group A
09.05.26	Biellese - Varese	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Varese - Saluzzo	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Varese - Derthona	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Celle Varazze - Varese	2:0 ✺
02.04.26	Varese - Valenzana Mado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
15.02.26	Varese - Ligorna	1:3
12.10.25	Ligorna - Varese	4:0
15.01.25	Varese - Ligorna	1:0
18.09.24	Ligorna - Varese	1:1
17.03.24	Varese - Ligorna	0:1
05.11.23	Ligorna - Varese	1:1
13.03.22	Ligorna - Varese	3:1

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