Match Info

Serie D - Group A - Round 32

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday


	Varese		Derthona

	1	X	2
	2	3.24	3.52	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.93)	3.22 ↓ (3.35)	3.52 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varese
45.8%

Draw
28.3%

Derthona
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

27.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

27.8%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Derthona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varese than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derthona than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Varese - Derthona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Varese won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Varese could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Varese won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Varese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Derthona FbC	6	3	2	1	7:6	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varese FC
Italian Serie D - Group A
12.04.26	Celle Varazze - Varese	2:0 ✺
02.04.26	Varese - Valenzana Mado	0:2 ✺
29.03.26	Unione Sanremo - Varese	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Varese - Gozzano	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Asti - Varese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLTTW
- Derthona FBC
Italian Serie D - Group A
12.04.26	Unione Sanremo - Derthona	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Derthona - Celle Varazze	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	NovaRomentin - Derthona	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Derthona - Asti	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cairese - Derthona	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
07.12.25	Derthona - Varese	1:2
02.03.25	Derthona - Varese	1:0
27.10.24	Varese - Derthona	2:0
26.11.23	Varese - Derthona	3:0
27.03.22	Varese - Derthona	0:1
07.11.21	Derthona - Varese	1:0
20.06.21	Varese - Derthona	1:2

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