Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Windsor Park (Belfast)

Referee: Boyce E. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Nifl TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Linfield		Carrick Rangers

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.70	4.20
	1.65	3.65	4.40
	1.74	3.85	4.56
	1.7	3.74	4.32	Watch
	1.72	3.80	4.50
	1.77	3.74	4.25
	1.67	3.70	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.58)	3.74 ↑ (3.65)	4.38 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Linfield
54.2%

Draw
24.7%

Carrick Rangers
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

24.8%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.1%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Linfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Carrick Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Linfield than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Linfield - Carrick Rangers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Johns Ch. (G) 26. Baird I. 29. Fitzpatrick M. 10. Frizzell A. 15. Hall B. 8. McClean K. 34. McCullough D. 27. McGee E. 7. Millar K. 30. Moore K. 5. Shields C.	1. Gartside N. (G) 15. Buchanan-Rolleston B. 4. Burns B. 6. Callacher J. 19. Crowe J. 5. Forsythe J. 9. Gibson D. 22. Heatley P. 12. McCullough L. (C) 24. Snoddy M. 14. Steele A.
Substitutes
36. Annett R. 19. Brennan R. 24. Brown S. 66. Chapman C. 18. Glavin A. (G) 14. Nelson K. 16. Wells D.	25. Agnew D. (G) 20. Cherry K. 8. Clucas S. 11. Maciulaitis N. 17. Moore J. 3. Nelson K. 7. O'Conchubhair D.
Coaches
Healy D.	Baxter S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Burns B. ↓, Nelson K. ↑,
42', Snoddy M. ↓, Cherry K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Callacher J. 🟥,
55', 1 - 0, Hall B. ⚽,
64', Baird I. ↓, Wells D. ↑,
64', Moore K. ↓, Nelson K. ↑,
85', McCullough D. 🟨,
88', Shields C. 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', Heatley P. 🟥,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Linfield won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Carrick Rangers may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Linfield is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Linfield will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Linfield won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 49:16. (average 2.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Linfield won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 35:6. (average 3.2:0.5).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Linfield: 25.98% Carrick Rangers: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Linfield	9	7	1	1	12:6	6	22
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Carrick Rangers - the odds 5.1 are the expected chance of winning is 17.78%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Linfield FC
Northern Irish Premiership
29.08.26	Limavady United - Linfield	0:2 ✺
21.08.26	Linfield - Cliftonville	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Linfield - Glentoran	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Linfield - Ballymena United	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Dollingstown - Linfield	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWLW
- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
29.08.26	Bangor - Carrick Rangers	0:4 ✺
22.08.26	Carrick Rangers - Coleraine	0:2 ✺
15.08.26	Limavady United - Carrick Rangers	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Carrick Rangers - Portadown	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Ballyclare Comrades - Carrick Rangers	1:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
20.03.26	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	2:0
13.01.26	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	0:0
29.11.25	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	3:1
11.01.25	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	3:0
03.11.24	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	1:3
21.09.24	Linfield - Carrick Rangers	1:0
02.04.24	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	2:3

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