Match Info

Premiership - Relegation - Final

Date: 22 May 2025, Thursday

Location: The Home of the Set Fare Arena (Livingston)

Referee: Beaton J. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Livingston		Ross County

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.98	3.4	3.75
	1.87	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.52	4.45
	1.88	3.51	4.28	Watch
	2	3.3	3.7
	1.86	3.51	4.35	Watch
	1.9	3.4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.5)	3.44 ↑ (3.1)	4.13 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livingston
49.6%

Draw
27.5%

Ross County
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.7%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

28.8%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livingston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Livingston's performance.

Ross County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ross County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Livingston that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ross County than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ross County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.3%	8.8%	5.9%

Livingston - Ross County Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Livingston will win (votes: 26 - 83.9%). Ross County will win (votes: 2 - 6.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Livingston: 71% – 96.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Livingston (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Livingston will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Livingston (votes: 14 - 87.5%). Ross County (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Prior J. (G) 12. Brandon J. (C) 5. McGowan R. 27. Wilson D. 11. Fraser R. 10. Kelly S. 25. Tait M. 8. Pittman S. 15. Smith L. 23. Muirhead R. 26. Montano C.	18. Amissah J. (G) 4. Wright A. 35. Nightingale W. 19. Campbell E. 24. Efete M. 8. Randall C. 42. Kenneh N. 15. Ashworth Z. 23. Nisbet J. 25. Samuel A. 9. Hale R.
Substitutes
19. Finlayson D. 14. Hamilton J. (G) 40. Lawal S. 17. May S. 6. McAlear R. 21. Nottingham M. 22. Shinnie A. 7. Sole L. 9. Yengi T.	37. Coyle J. 16. Harmon G. 11. Phillips K. 34. Robesten G. 31. Ross L. (G) 30. Smith D. 12. Tomkinson J. 26. White J. 36. Williamson J.
Coaches
Martindale D.	Cowie D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Samuel A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Wilson D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Kenneh N. 🟨,
60', Tait M. ↓, Finlayson D. ↑,
61', Samuel A. ↓, White J. ↑,
68', Efete M. ↓, Smith D. ↑,
68', Ashworth Z. ↓, Harmon G. ↑,
73', Muirhead R. ↓, May S. ↑,
82', Montano C. ↓, Yengi T. ↑,
85', Smith L. 🟨,
90+1', White J. 🟨,
90+5', Wilson D. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Hale R. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livingston won 2.

Livingston is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ross County is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Livingston may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Livingston might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Ross County: Allardice S. (Knee Injury) Chilvers N. (Knee Injury) Grieves J. (Inactive) Laidlaw R. (Inactive) Leak R. (Injury) MacLeod A. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Ross County: Lopata K. (Inactive)

We predict that Livingston will win today's game, with odds of 2.09.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Livingston won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:21. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Livingston won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:6. (average 1.8:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Ross County - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 33.48%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Livingston FC
Scottish Premier League
16.05.25	Livingston - Partick Thistle	2:0 ✺
13.05.25	Partick Thistle - Livingston	0:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
02.05.25	Livingston - Partick Thistle	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Hamilton Academical - Livingston	0:3 ✺
18.04.25	Livingston - Ayr United	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW
- Ross County
Scottish Premier League
18.05.25	Ross County - Motherwell	1:1 ✺
14.05.25	Dundee - Ross County	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	St. Johnstone - Ross County	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Ross County - Hearts	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Kilmarnock - Ross County	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Cup
18.01.25	Ross County - Livingston	2:3 ET
Scottish Premier League
27.04.24	Livingston - Ross County	2:0
24.02.24	Ross County - Livingston	3:2
30.01.24	Livingston - Ross County	2:2
16.09.23	Ross County - Livingston	1:1
06.05.23	Ross County - Livingston	2:0
18.03.23	Livingston - Ross County	2:1

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