Match Info

Date: 4 March 2021, Thursday


	Livorno		Alessandria

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2
	3.3	3.1	2.05	Watch
	3.4	2.95	2.05
	3.8	3.05	1.92
	3.97	3.06	2.14
	3.75	2.88	2.15
	3.8	2.88	2.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.12)	2.99 ↑ (2.9)	2.06 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
25.1%

Draw
30.6%

Alessandria
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

31.2%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

22.2%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Alessandria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alessandria than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alessandria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Livorno - Alessandria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion to Serie C to Promotion to Play Offs).

Livorno is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Alessandria is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alessandria could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Alessandria will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Livorno won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Livorno won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group A
28.02.21	Pergolettese - Livorno	1:0 ✺
21.02.21	Livorno - Renate	0:1 ✺
17.02.21	Novara - Livorno	1:1 ✺
13.02.21	Livorno - Olbia	3:3 ✺
07.02.21	Juventus U23 - Livorno	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTTL
- Alessandria 1912
Italian Serie C Group A
01.03.21	Alessandria - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
21.02.21	Pontedera - Alessandria	0:0 ✺
17.02.21	Grosseto - Alessandria	1:1 ✺
13.02.21	Alessandria - Giana Erminio	0:0 ✺
07.02.21	Novara - Alessandria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
08.11.20	Alessandria - Livorno	3:2
28.01.18	Livorno - Alessandria	0:1
15.09.17	Alessandria - Livorno	0:3
30.12.16	Livorno - Alessandria	2:1
04.09.16	Alessandria - Livorno	3:1

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