Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Bello Horizonte (Villavicencio)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Llaneros SA		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.55	Watch
	2.24	3.25	3.56
	2.03	3.23	3.82	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.6
	2.08	3.17	3.66	Watch
	2.25	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (3.32)	3.13 ↑ (2.95)	3.61 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llaneros SA
44.1%

Draw
30%

Independiente Medellín
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

31.6%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

30.1%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llaneros SA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Llaneros SA's performance.

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Medellín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llaneros SA than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Llaneros SA that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+16.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Medellín could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Llaneros SA - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Llaneros SA will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Llaneros SA: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Llaneros SA (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Llaneros SA (votes: 1 - 50%). Ind Medellín (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ortega M. (G) 4. Pertuz J. 26. Quintero D. 21. Meza F. (C) 16. Escobar Salcedo J. 6. Sierra M. 17. Benitez B. 10. Ospina N. 8. Ramirez J. 95. Jhon Vasquez 9. Cortes C.	25. Chaux E. (C) 36. Piedrahita L. 23. Palacios M. 3. Balanta M. 30. Palacios H. 31. Moreno D. 8. Serna A. 35. Ortega A. 18. Fabra F. 17. Mancilla G. 9. Larrosa E.
Substitutes
15. Blanco J. 99. Castro J. 33. Kelvin Osorio 12. Loaiza J. (G) 19. Mantilla D. 94. Medranda J. 7. Miranda L. 23. Moralez A. 3. Vidal V.	5. Banguera J. 28. Davila A. 1. Ichazo S. (G) 26. Mena Perea E. 6. Moreno D. 24. Ortiz J. 34. Segura N. 27. Urrutia J. 38. Viveros J.
Coaches
Garcia J.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Benitez B. 🟨,
39', Mancilla G. 🟨,
39', Moreno D. 🟨,
45', Piedrahita L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
51', 0 - 1, Benitez B. (Own goal),
55', Palacios H. ↓, Mena Perea E. ↑,
55', Piedrahita L. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
60', Cortes C. ↓, Blanco J. ↑,
60', Escobar Salcedo J. ↓, Medranda J. ↑,
61', Benitez B. ↓, Miranda L. ↑,
61', Chaux E. 🟨,
63', Balanta M. ↓, Banguera J. ↑,
64', Ortega A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
75', Serna A. 🟨,
76', 1 - 1, Jhon Vasquez (Penalty Awarded),
76', Pertuz J. ↓, Mantilla D. ↑,
76', Sierra M. ↓, Kelvin Osorio ↑,
84', Fabra F. ↓, Viveros J. ↑,
85', Meza F. 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Moreno D. ⚽, Mena Perea E. (A),
90+9', 2 - 2, Ospina N. ⚽, Blanco J. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 16).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Llaneros SA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Llaneros SA is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Llaneros SA won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).

Including home match between the teams, Llaneros SA won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20
12	Llaneros	13	4	2	7	15:17	-2	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llaneros Fútbol Club SA
Colombian Primera A
14.02.26	Millonarios - Llaneros SA	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Llaneros SA - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Llaneros SA - Rionegro Águilas	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Llaneros SA	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LLWTT
- Independiente Medellín
Copa Libertadores
17.02.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
14.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pereira	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Independiente Medellín	1:3 ✺
06.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Inter Bogotá	1:2 ✺
02.02.26	Millonarios - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
10.08.25	Llaneros SA - Independiente Medellín	0:1
27.02.25	Independiente Medellín - Llaneros SA	3:0

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