Match Info

HNL - Round 2

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAX Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Lokomotiva Zagreb		Gorica

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.50	4.10
	1.83	3.50	4.10	Watch
	1.72	3.65	3.85
	1.88	3.69	4.18
	1.95	3.57	3.71	Watch
	1.80	3.65	4.20
	1.86	3.61	4.23	Watch
	1.84	3.35	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.25)	3.57 ↑ (3.33)	4.03 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiva Zagreb
50.8%

Draw
26.1%

Gorica
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

28%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

26.8%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiva Zagreb has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lokomotiva Zagreb's performance.

Gorica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gorica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiva Zagreb than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lokomotiva Zagreb that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gorica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.6%	8.6%	2.9%

Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Lokomotiva will win (votes: 31 - 88.6%). Gorica will win (votes: 1 - 2.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 8.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lokomotiva: 78.1% – 99.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lokomotiva Zagreb will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Posavec J. (G) 23. Vesovic M. 5. Jukic T. 4. Triantafyllou A. 17. Pajac M. 10. Subotic M. (C) 29. Vasilj J. 7. Vukovic D. 8. Katic I. 11. Susak M. 24. Maric M.	71. Matijas D. (G) 45. Peric S. 32. Filipovic J. (C) 34. Cvijanovic I. 2. Braut F. 66. Frigan J. 36. Kavelj A. 25. Bogojevic B. 4. Custovic K. 24. Pavicic D. 9. Mijic P.
Substitutes
22. Antunovic M. 9. Belcar L. 20. Cabrajic K. 28. Djurkovic N. 6. Fetai F. 27. Godec N. 21. Kralevski T. 14. Lorber M. 26. Morina D. 30. Reic D. 32. Savatovic L. (G) 15. Thaqi D.	7. Bakic O. 26. Carole K. 99. Gashi M. 1. Josipovic R. (G) 18. Kardum B. 28. Kozina E. 14. Kucis S. 21. Moustapha H. I. 67. Prgomet T. 20. Vrzic L. 30. Zarkov D. (G)
Coaches
Jelavic N.	Carevic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Maric M. ⚽, Pajac M. (A),
40', 2 - 0, Kavelj A. (Own goal),
45+1', Katic I. 🟨,
45+1', Pavicic D. 🟨,
45+1', Vesovic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Custovic K. ↓, Vrzic L. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Bogojevic B. ⚽, Vrzic L. (A),
63', Vasilj J. ↓, Belcar L. ↑,
63', Susak M. ↓, Thaqi D. ↑,
68', Thaqi D. 🟨,
74', Pajac M. 🟨,
78', Frigan J. ↓, Gashi M. ↑,
79', Triantafyllou A. 🟨,
79', Mijic P. 🟨,
80', Maric M. ↓, Lorber M. ↑,
80', Katic I. ↓, Kralevski T. ↑,
85', Braut F. ↓, Kardum B. ↑,
90+3', Subotic M. ↓, Djurkovic N. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Djurkovic N. ⚽, Vukovic D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiva won 3.

Lokomotiva is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gorica's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Lokomotiva could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Lokomotiva will win today's game, with odds of 2.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiva won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 30:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiva won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.5:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lok. Zagreb	8	2	1	5	11:16	-5	7
10	Gorica	9	1	2	6	6:14	-8	5

Last Results with these Odds

Lokomotiva Zagreb - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.48%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Croatian HNL
01.08.26	Istra 1961 - Lokomotiva Zagreb	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Karpaty Lviv	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	3:1 ✺
10.07.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Partizan	2:2 ✺
04.07.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - NK Bravo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWTW
- HNK Gorica
Croatian HNL
01.08.26	Gorica - Osijek	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.26	Gorica - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:2 ✺
19.07.26	St. Pauli - Gorica	2:1 ✺
16.07.26	Gorica - Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	1:0 ✺
13.07.26	Gorica - Göztepe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
17.04.26	Gorica - Lokomotiva Zagreb	0:2
06.02.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	3:0
03.11.25	Gorica - Lokomotiva Zagreb	4:1
16.08.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	1:3
24.05.25	Gorica - Lokomotiva Zagreb	0:3
28.03.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	1:1
Club Friendly
10.01.25	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Gorica	2:0

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